Welsh Independence

Wales will not recover while dependent on London

2012-01-25T22:24:00.002Z

The Zero Option

2012-01-17T07:21:00.002Z

Now that Scottish Independence is firmly on the agenda, and the sovereign debt crisis threatens to engulf the Eurozone, it is time to look at the implications of national debt on the finances of an independent Wales.

Firstly some facts and figures – the UK National Debt currently stands at £940 Billion with interest payments on this debt amounting to £43 Billion per year. Or to put it another way, every UK citizen owes almost £16,000 each, and has to pay around £720 per year on interest. If you remove the economically inactive, then the average taxpayer is having to pay around £1500 per year on interest payments alone.

Looking at this from a Welsh context an independent Wales would initially assume responsibility for 5% of the UK National Debt, or around £47 billion but we would also ‘inherit’ a 5% share of UK National Assets.

While Wales would undoubtedly want its share of Gold & Forex reserves and other transferable assets, as well as physical assets located on Welsh soil, it would be impractical to share out many of the assets (for example central London property portfolio, and overseas embassies) and politically unacceptable to share others (for example Trident submarines and their nuclear deterrent). In reality, a valuation of all assets would need to be made, and where it is not possible or practical to share out the assets proportionately , then a corresponding reduction in share of the debt would need to be made.

This is not just wishful thinking, this principle was established during the breakup of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia; and in many cases the easiest solution was to transfer neither debts nor assets other than those physically located in the new country – the so-called zero-option.

In practice I believe that Wales would take a proportion of UK assets and liabilities but that these would be closer to a 1-2% share than a proportionate 5%.

And this means that in an independent Wales, the average taxpayer could see a reduction in interest payments of more than £1000 per year.

To put this in a personal context, this is the same as getting yourself out of a debt crisis by moving to a smaller house to reduce the mortgage, while watching your next door neighbours struggle to make finance payments on their new speedboat.

Leanne Wood - Welsh Independence

2012-01-14T20:29:00.003Z

Scotland is going places. That was the over-riding mood at their conference in Inverness.

Alex Salmond has every reason to be confident and optimistic. His speech reflected the confidence and optimism that will be needed on the part Scotland's people if the referendum on independence is to be successful.

It's hard to work out where the No campaign will come from. The Tories are in a terrible mess. Will they rely on their party bosses in London to put the case against?

Long time Labour supporters are starting to see independence as inevitable.

In her fraternal address from Plaid Cymru to the conference, Elin Jones AM said that we should now be thinking about the implications of all of this for Wales.

“As you, in the SNP and in Scotland, consider the real possibility of creating an independent Scotland, we are left to consider what would be left. A UK Government governing all English matters, and only some Welsh matters and even less Northern Irish matters. It is now time for a serious debate on the future constitutional relationship of the countries of the British islands. It is time to debate equality, not subservience and dependence. To us, the UK is currently a pretence of a country. After a Yes vote in your referendum, it could no longer pretend to anyone, not even itself.”

Can we in Wales emulate the enthusiasm, confidence and determination which was on show in abundance in Inverness this weekend? A glimpse of what is possible was seen in the build up to the rugby world cup semi-final. The nation was united in wanting success then. If that same drive could be dedicated to building and equalising Wales, there'd be 'nae limits' to what we could achieve.

From leannewoodamac.blogspot.com

Thinking about Thistles and an Untied Kingdom

2011-11-10T21:14:00.003Z

"It would be a strange situation if Wales was part of a UK that also consisted of England and Northern Ireland but not Scotland. Would Wales send a mere 30 MPs to sit alongside 502 English counterparts? By this time, would Welsh MPs be banned from voting on English matters and holding ministerial positions in devolved areas (which would presumably make it impossible for a Welsh MP to become PM)?"

Click image to read full article

Stand for What is Right!

2011-10-27T23:01:00.001Z

Independence, Scotland is going places - Leanne Wood

2011-10-27T10:09:00.004Z

Scotland is going places. That was the over-riding mood at this weekend's SNP conference in Inverness.

Alex Salmond has every reason to be confident and optimistic. His speech reflected the confidence and optimism that will be needed on the part Scotland's people if the referendum on independence is to be successful.

It's hard to work out where the No campaign will come from. The Tories are in a terrible mess. Will they rely on their party bosses in London to put the case against?

Long time Labour supporters are starting to see independence as inevitable.

In her fraternal address from Plaid Cymru to the conference, Elin Jones AM said that we should now be thinking about the implications of all of this for Wales.

“As you, in the SNP and in Scotland, consider the real possibility of creating an independent Scotland, we are left to consider what would be left. A UK Government governing all English matters, and only some Welsh matters and even less Northern Irish matters. It is now time for a serious debate on the future constitutional relationship of the countries of the British islands. It is time to debate equality, not subservience and dependence. To us, the UK is currently a pretence of a country. After a Yes vote in your referendum, it could no longer pretend to anyone, not even itself.”

Can we in Wales emulate the enthusiasm, confidence and determination which was on show in abundance in Inverness this weekend? A glimpse of what is possible was seen in the build up to the rugby world cup semi-final. The nation was united in wanting success then. If that same drive could be dedicated to building and equalising Wales, there'd be 'nae limits' to what we could achieve.

Leanne Wood,
Originally appeared on http://leannewoodamac.blogspot.com

How British do you feel? - 2

2011-10-25T10:49:00.004Z

Following from the previous post, here are the results published in the Guardian newspaper on 12th October ('A diverse, radical family', Owen Jones). Wonderful to see so much green in Wales, blue in Scotland and red in England, and notice how many people chose 'other' in Cornwall as they did not include a Cornish option!

The article is not available for free online unfortunately, but the map in the image below is very interesting. If you are a subscriber, you can read the article in full - page 15 - here.

(image lifted from Facebook)

How British do you feel?

2011-10-06T20:04:00.009Z

With the prospect of a possible Scottish referendum on independence, The Guardian are running a poll asking how many people think of themselves as Welsh, Scottish, English, Irish or Northern Irish rather than British.

You can take part in the poll by including your postcode and choosing a flag - the Welsh one of course! ;-) - here.

Here is how the Guardian identity map looks in Wales at the moment:

Press on the following images to see larger versions:

North Wales
South Wales
Cardiff & surrounding area

West of Britain Labour

2011-09-28T21:55:00.002Z

(inspired by the Scottish equivalent http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1653463626207)

Wherever something is wrong, something is too big.

2011-09-28T19:10:00.009Z

I've just come across this excellent article by Paul Kingsnorth on the Guardian website from last Sunday, reminding us of Leopold Kohr's warning 50 years ago that the global system would grow, and grow until it imploded. Kohr also argued that small states and small economies are more peaceful and prosperous than great powers or superstates. Here are some quotes from the article. You can read the full article on guardian.co.uk

"Wherever something is wrong," he (Kohr) insisted, "something is too big."

"Settling in the US, Kohr began to write the book that would define his thinking. Published in 1957, The Breakdown of Nations laid out what at the time was a radical case: that small states, small nations and small economies are more peaceful, more prosperous and more creative than great powers or superstates."

"The world should be broken up into small states, roughly equivalent in size and power, which would be able to limit the growth and thus domination of any one unit. Small states and small economies were more flexible, more able to weather economic storms, less capable of waging serious wars, and more accountable to their people. Not only that, but they were more creative. On a whistlestop tour of medieval and early modern Europe, The Breakdown of Nations does a brilliant job of persuading the reader that many of the glories of western culture, from cathedrals to great art to scientific innovations, were the product of small states."

You can buy 'The Breakdown of Nations' by Leopold Kohr from Amazon or any good independent book store.

The following comment was received via email, the contributor was having problems leaving a comment. Some very good points... I have therefore decided to incorporate it into the post.

This is a good book and certainly one to read.

Two points - Kohr lived for years in Aberystwyth - a fact missed by the Guardian author for some reason. His contribution to Welsh political thought has been great and I believe, Wales affected him too.

The one irritating point with the book is the title and the common mistake in English of confusing a 'state' with a 'nation'. So, for instance, when Estonia became independent in 1991 it wasn't a 'new nation' (it's a very ancient nation) it was a 'new state'. Likewise, from a Welsh nationalist point of view, most African countries are not 'nations' they are 'states' and so their demise is not, in itself, a cause for concern. Of more concern is the cultural and linguistic situation of the nations/linguistic communities within those states. So, Kohr's title is misleading.

The title would be much clearer if it was 'The Breakdown of States' as what Kohr is proposing, in the European scenario, is the reintroduction or emergence of the historic nations of Europe - Wales, Scotland, Brittany etc. and then the historic regions - Bavaria, Picardy etc. The theory being is that smaller states are closer to the people and that, even if you do get some crack-pot dictator then it's only the small part of the continent which is in danger not the whole continent - compare Albania's Hoxha to USSR's Stalin or had Napoleon stayed in Corsica rather than governed France.

This process has mostly been completed in Eastern Europe (some of his suggestions and maps are a bit quirky and lacking in historic and geographical detail and reality) but Eastern Europe has mostly turned out as Kohr (and Welsh, Estonian, Slovak etc.) nationalists campaigned for. Western Europe - Britain, France and Spain, to a much lesser extent.

His other insight is that a Welsh peasant in WWI would have no quarrel with a Bavarian or Silesian peasant but that a 'British' peasant did with a 'German' one.

In any case, certainly worth a read.

PS - where's the plack or bust to Kohr in Baker Street, Aberystwyth!? C'mon Plaid councillors on Aber town council!

Siôr

Radio Wales Phone-in 12/09/2011 - Welsh Independence

2011-09-13T00:00:00.004Z

One of the best radio discussions on Welsh Independence for a long time, hosted by Jason Mohammad on BBC Radio Wales.

Radio Wales Phone-in 12/09/2011 - Welsh Independence

Copyright BBC Radio Wales.

Too Poor to be Independent – the same old story

2011-09-11T23:00:00.000Z

An excellent article by Sion Jobbins. Shorter version originally appeared on cambriapolitico.com "Is Wales Economically Viable?" and in the Cambria Magazine.

‘Wales is too poor to be independent. It’s not economically viable.’

Funny, were Wales given a penny every time somebody said that, then Wales would certainly be economically viable!

This ‘can’t afford independence’ is a common refrain by commentators and politicians alike, and is currently used with great gusto as an argument against Scottish independence. But a quick glance through the articles, editorials and letters page of the past makes it clear that Wales and Scotland haven’t been the only European countries ‘which can’t afford independence’. It seems to be the standard line every time a small country strives for freedom.

Malta was one example. An editorial in The Times on 7 January 1959 noted gravely:

‘Malta cannot live on its own … the island could pay for only one-fifths of her food and essential imports; well over a quarter of the present labour force would be out of work and the economy of the country would collapse with out British Treasury subventions. Talk of full independence for Malta is therefore hopelessly impractical.’

The Times published a letter on 21 January 1964 by a Joseph Agius of Ta’ Xbiex on Malta stating fearfully of:

‘... the folly of giving independence to Malta when we are not economically prepared for it.’

Malta gained independence on 21 September 1964. It is essentially a city state on a barren rock; from a British point of view it was a very large dock. In 2009 its GDP at $23,800 per capita was similar to other former imperial port cities like Liverpool, Newcastle or Marseilles.

Norway was another country which ‘couldn’t afford independence’. Like Malta prior to independence, it had an amount of self-government, but within Sweden. One of the great bones of contention for Norway was that the consular service and tariffs were biased towards the more agrarian Swedish economy rather than the exporting Norwegian one. Even though the call for greater independence was widely felt across Norway, there were still some who were afraid of it and its consequences.

On 6 July 1892, The Times published a letter by ‘R.H’ entitled, ‘A Warning from Norway’:

‘… I may add that, as regards the immediate point of consular representation, the opinion of the commercial class in both kingdoms, as expressed in the chambers of commerce, beginning with the Norwegian capital itself, is decidedly hostile to it… At the same time it seems scarcely possible that the leaders of the movement can clearly realise the fate they are preparing for the country by what may well be termed a suicidal agitation … would not a free national existence but subserviency, not to say bondage to Russia … [Norway] reduced to conditions of a central Asian khanate.’

Norway gained independence on 13 May 1905. It didn’t become a ‘central Asian khanate’.

In a rare article on Icelandic politics, The Guardian wrote a sentence on 23 March 1908, which I guess has been used for all former colonies:

‘It is very interesting to note that in this connection that Denmark has to pay a heavy price for her nominal possession of Iceland in the form of a large annual subvention [that word again!] to the Budget of the island.’

To bring us closer to our present time, Slovakia gained independence in the famous ‘Velvet Divorce’ in 1993 and again the questions of its future were raised. In a generally balanced editorial, The Independent on 31 December 1992 noted:

‘… there is no shortage of potential disputes. Currency union is doomed, with the Czechs determined to balance their budget and the Slovaks expected to head down the road of deficit financing and inflation.’

The Guardian’s report two days after independence of the two new states on 3 January 1993 highlighted that:

‘many people see the split as a failure and others are nervous about proving themselves in an uncertain world.’

What no report on Slovak (or Czech, Norwegian, Icelandic or Maltese) independence seem to suggest or foresee is the economic success which they have been.

In this respect, the general tone of the British mindset varies from a mild independence-scepticism to hostility towards most forms of independence. A scepticism which is at times more irrational and unscientific than that which the ‘romantic’ nationalists are accused of.

There are presently 192 members of the UN – they can all ‘afford independence’. This month there will be another when the UN will accept its latest member, South Sudan. Yes, South Sudan can ‘afford independence’. There is also another country which is expected to declare independence this summer. It is the one country which in terms of its fractured geography, fractious politics and crippled economy you would expect to hear an argument that it ‘can’t afford independence’. That country is Palestine. However, in much the same way that Scotland seems to be uniquely the only oil-producing country in the world which British left wingers think would be poorer with independence, Palestine seems to be the only state which no left winger questions if it could ‘afford independence’.

Which leads me to question if there is a deeper reason for the historic reaction which some of our self-appointed ‘progressive’ friends have against independence for smaller European nations?

In a little quoted article titled ‘The Magyar Struggle’ in the Neue Rheinische Zeitung on 13 January 1849 the co-founder of Communism, Freidrich Engels wrote of the ‘primitive’ and ‘counter-revolutionary peoples’ of Europe. These were nations such as the Basques, Bretons, Scottish Highlanders and Serbians whom he patronised for not having even reached the stage of capitalism. He calls them ‘völkerabfälle’ (racial trash / residual nations). He says:

‘these residual fragments of peoples always become fanatical standard-bearers of counter-revolution and remain so until their complete extirpation or loss of their national character, just as their whole existence in general is itself a protest against a great historical revolution.’

Is this the root of the historical world-view among some so-called progressives, of deep hostility towards independence for some European nations ? Is it that these progressives (and economists) see the larger nations, as Engels would say as ‘the main vehicle of historical development’ to the detriment of smaller nations who seem, by definition, to be insular and counter-revolutionary?

But back to July 2010. Of course, South Sudan gaining independence is hardly an economic inspiration for Welsh independence. Not even the South Sudanese wish to celebrate their economic fortune. But then, the comparison for all economic scenarios, pre or post independence, in the short term at least, is the context of the neighbouring countries.

So, let’s discuss independence in another frame? Maybe we should view economic independence in light of it just being another economic transition.

The Welsh economy has been through several major economic transitions; agrarian in the early 19th century, then an industrial revolution, and a managed (or badly managed) process of de-industrialisation.

Independence would be but another economic transition. No Welsh economist or politician would advocate the Welsh economy to be the same in 20 years time as it is now. There will be change whatever happens, so why not a more fundamental economic change with independence as the vehicle?

There are of course those who argue that Wales is ‘too poor’ and I’ll leave that debate to those more capable than me in the statistical war of attrition but I’ll make a few comments.

The Welsh economy has been in historic decline since 1923 when the price of coal peaked. During that time Wales has been through 3 of the 5 stages of constitutional states. It’s been governed as an integral part of ‘the Realm of England’ (1536-1959); as a part of England but with some administrative functions - the Welsh Office period (1959-1999); and as a state with some self-government (1999 until the present day).

There are two stages left, generally speaking. The first is self-government with some taxation powers and then independence. Both the first three constitutional settlements have not improved Wales’s economic well-being. Why not, from an economic point of view, try the other two?

In the same way that I believe independence is a vehicle to revive a weak language and culture I believe economic independence is the best way to revive a weak economy. It is the journey as well as the destination.

And I’m not the only one who thinks so. As predictable as the articles ‘can the Turnip-eaters afford independence?’ are the articles post independence by the same papers which point how better off, economically and culturally, the countries are.

One quick example, again from that barren rock in the North Atlantic, Iceland – the little country which had the courage to tell their bankers were to go.

On, 1 December 1938, twenty years and a World War after The Guardian’s dire assessment, The Times wrote a glowing report on Iceland’s twentieth anniversary of independence from Denmark. Subtitled with the decidedly modernist, ‘Roads and Radio’ the Times notes succinctly:

‘Side by side with the political liberation of the country, developed the gradual economic emancipation of the island.’

The article continues by outlining the many benefits gained since independence, especially in the fields of modern communications

So what of Wales? Wales today is guilty of voting for a sort of national Gombeenism form of economic politics. The Gombeen man is the Irish politician who’s only out to get some economic or social gain for his constituency, devoid of a broader political or philosophical outlook. Wales, by belatedly wanting ‘fair funding’ from Westminster, sulking over ‘unfair cuts’, ‘demanding’ electrification of railways, but shirking responsibility over large energy generating projects or taxation policies is only furthering the Gombeen image of itself. It’s humiliating and unnecessary.

In his recent article, ‘Small is cute, sexy and successful: Why Independence for Wales and other countries makes Economic Sense’ in the Harvard Kennedy Review, Adam Price makes a case for independence for ‘small’ nations. He compares the economic fortunes of independent Luxembourg and its neighbour, the German province, Saarland since the Second World War. The case is compelling. A similar case could possible be made in relation to Singapore which became independent of Malaysia in 1965 and Zanzibar which lost its independence and joined Tanganyika to form Tanzania in 1964.

But we needn’t look to foreign lands for inspiration or precedent. There’s a successful case of Wales not being ‘too poor to be independent’ in every parish in our land – the founding of the Church in Wales in 1922.

Like those Wilsonian new East European states, it could hardly have been formed at a worse time! After 800 years, the Welsh church became independent during what the Rev D.T. W. Price in his book; A History of the Church in Wales in the Twentieth Century (1990) calls ‘the locust years’. ‘Nonetheless,’ as the Rev Price notes, ‘by 1937 it was generally felt, and rightly so, that the financial condition of the Church in Wales was as sound as it had been before disestablishment.’

Independence would force politicians and us voters in Wales to grow up. We would be economically viable because we would have to be – we’d have to learn to swim. Let’s look at ‘good practice’. After communism, bling-capitalism, imperialism, state socialism, supra-national states or religious statehood, the nation-state and independence is the one political construct which not one state or people has turned its back on. Independence works. It’s time Wales made independence work for her.

Would an independent Wales be better off than the status quo?

2011-09-09T01:00:00.000Z

Excellent balanced piece by Sion Barry, Western Mail, Aug 12 2011

THERE was some interesting research published recently by former Plaid Cymru MP Adam Price, who is keen to return to the political arena after time spent at Harvard in the US.

His research, entitled the Flotilla Effect – Europe’s small economies through the eye of the storm, claims that it has been smaller and more agile nations in the EU which have, on average, experienced higher economic growth rates than larger countries since 1990, while also being quicker to emerge out of recession.

Mr Price and his co-author Ben Levinger, also a Harvard researcher, claim that four key factors make small nations economically successful: openness to trade, social cohesion, adaptability, and big government in a small country.

Their headline figure is that Wales could be around 39% richer, and the Welsh economy could have grown by 2.5% a year, if it had achieved independence around the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall and had followed a similar pattern to other similar small nations.

In contrast, regions or countries which have rejected independence have performed poorly.

But could Wales really have achieved this average, or would it have been well down the rankings in the small nation growth table – or conversely even above?

While a hypothetical question, Mr Price has re-ignited the debate on how an independent Wales could perform economically.

Of course since 1990 the fastest growing economies have been those with some of the world’s biggest populations, notably China, India and Brazil.

But back to the issue of Welsh independence. Firstly, of course, there would need to be a democratic mandate with a majority of AMs and possibly of Welsh MPs in Westminster backing independence. And even if a referendum was called and turned out to back independence, it would also need endorsement from the UK Government.

Many argue that Wales is “too small” – although this is an economic strength according to Mr Price – and doesn’t generate enough tax receipts, both personal and corporate, to support itself. Coupled with current high economic inactivity levels, they believe that Wales would fall even further behind on key economic indicators if it broke away from England.

An independent Welsh government could also be faced with the need of having to strike a deal with the Treasury on what percentage of the UK’s national debt – currently running at an eye-watering £900bn – it would be liable for. On a population calculation that could leave Wales with a potential bill of £45bn, although no doubt it would look to negotiate a non-repayment position as with Wales receiving more per head in government spending than the UK average, independence would immediately generate savings for an English government.

An independent administration could also argue that it would be entitled to a share of any future assets sales by an English government, which it could use to offset any national debt repayment charge.

Critically, how would an independent Welsh Government generate sufficient income?

While there might be pain initially it should look to reduce personal and business taxes and promote itself to the world as western Europe’s most “friendly business location”.

There is evidence that lower taxes not only attract new investment into economies, but act as a spur for increased indigenous business inactivity, which in turn increases the overall tax take.

With a more competitive tax regime Wales could not just attract high-net-worth individuals, but, over time, leading head office operations from the south-east of England.

A lower tax regime would also help in attracting more investment from overseas.

Wales could look to continue to receive UK government-funded public services.

For example, a Welsh government could be happy to continue with a BBC licence fee to ensure it maintains public service broadcast output for Welsh viewers – although news content would have to feature more Welsh content.

With utilities and telecom providers long since private, it would be a case of business as usual for consumers in Wales – while retailers would also still trade in Wales, perhaps with the added incentive of a lower VAT regime.

International and UK banks, as well as mutuals, would continue to operate as they do now.

On currency Wales could opt to join the euro – providing it is still in existence – or potentially peg its currency to sterling.

From a global perspective there is a link between being resource rich and economic growth; just look at Australia and Canada.

Wales does have an abundance of natural resources which could be of great benefit to its balance of payments. There are still huge reserves of coal in South Wales, as well as methane gas. Advances in carbon storage and capture technology could see Wales emerging as a significant exporter of coal in the future.

It is also well placed to develop renewables in areas such as wind and tidal power.

There are many examples of new states created in Europe since the 1990s, to study how new nations go about running things for themselves, like the new countries of the Balkans and Slovakia following its decision to break away from what is now the Czech Republic.

And if Scotland went independent first – the SNP has far wider support than Plaid Cymru – then there would be an even better model to work off.

However, current prospects of an independent Wales remain extremely unlikely, with the only show in town being more devolved powers – but taking a pragmatic view you should never rule anything in or out.

Follow Sion Barry on Twitter

Welsh sing independence tune — RT

2011-09-08T00:04:00.002Z

From Russia Today! Much better than anything you will ever see on the BBC!

The Flotilla Effect - Adam Price - Independent Wales could have been 40% richer

2011-09-07T23:05:00.008Z

A very interesting report by former Plaid Cymru MP Adam Price and Ben Levinger about the he potential economic benefits of Welsh independence. Adam Price is currently attaining a scholarship in Harvard (USA).

Adam Price claims that if independence was achieved in Wales at the same time as the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Wales would be 39% richer today in the current economic climate. Small nations tend to perform better which indicates that Wales would perform well in a World Crisis.

The Flotilla Effect - Europe’s small economies through the eye of the storm - plaidcymru.org
Download the Flotilla Effect - Adam Price and Ben Levinger (PDF)
Why Independence for Wales and Other Countries Makes Economic Sense - Adam Price - harvard.edu
The Flotilla Effect - A wealthier Wales with independence? - oggybloggyogwr.blogspot.com
Small country, massive disagreement - Adam Price - waleshome.org
Independent Wales could have been 40% richer, says Plaid Cymru report - guardian.co.uk
Independent Wales would be 39% richer, claims ex-MP - bbc.co.uk
Wales Can Be An Economic Success Story Too – Carmarthen Journal Column August 24, 2011 - jonathanedwards.org.uk
Plaid Cymru claim independent Wales could be 39% richer - leftfootforward.org
Independent Wales could be 39% richer - welshrepublic.com
Why Independence for Wales and Other Countries Makes Economic Sense - huffingtonpost.co.uk

It's been a long time...

2011-09-07T17:50:00.006Z

But we're back!

We hope to be posting more regularly once again from now on. If you would like to contribute please contact us. In the meantime, here are some great Welsh independence related links that have appeared since we've been away!

Why Independence for Wales and Other Countries Makes Economic Sense - huffingtonpost.co.uk - August 2 2011
Adam Price: Plaid Cymru should admit it dreams of independence - Western Mail - June 15 2011
Why Wales deserves independence – Part 1 / Part 2 - freewales.org
SNP success will inspire campaigners for Welsh independence - Western Mail - May 9 2011
Independence for Wales - Welsh Ramblings blog - April 2 2011
Welsh Independence? Discussion on democracyforum.co.uk - June 2009

Some good Independent Wales related links

2009-04-19T11:14:00.005Z

Independence: lies and economic realities Apr 18 2009 by Cuneglas, Cambria Politico
Ireland’s edge over Wales Apr 18 2009 by Dylan Jones-Evans, Western Mail
Owain Glyndwr and the French Connection Apr 13 2009 by David Williamson, Western Mail
‘Wales would be better off as an independent state in EU’ Apr 10 2009 by David Williamson, Western Mail
Unhappy Nationalist Apr 10 2009 by Miffed of Maerdy, Alan in Dyfed Blog
‘We’ll fight for the Yes vote but we’ve got a vision that far exceeds it’. Apr 6 2009 by David Williamson, Western Mail
Glyndwr letter comes home – as a copy Apr 1 2009 by David Williamson, Western Mail
On the Right Road! Mar 10 2009 by Nicholas Michael Morgan, British Nationalists in Wales Watch

Wales Can

2009-03-11T12:04:00.002Z

From the British Nationalists in Wales Watch Website

Plaid's new www.walescan.com website is just fantastic. A political party which actually maps out where they want Wales to be not in two or five years, but twenty. At last, we're starting to have the self confidence to take the first steps to being a proper nation.

Adam Price explains why we are the WalesCan generation

Of course, the British nationalists will rubbish it and talk Wales down - no news there. But I think we're on to something. My hunch? In the same way that the First World War initially saw a strengthening of the existing 'nation' states and empires - Russia, Austria-Hungary, Britain, as the war progressed other radical voices, voices which just a couple of years earlier were seen as marginal, maverick or extremist - Czech, Irish, Estonian, Slovene nationalists - became mainstream and ultimately it was their prescription and their assessment of the future course of their nations which won the day.

Why do some peddle the myth that being pro-Welsh independence means you're anti-English?

Thank heavens, the present recession/depression is as nothing of the scale and carnage of WWI, but I've got a sneaky feeling that the initial strengthening of Britishness will wane. After all, Britishness has decreased with every recession in the last hundred years.

Plaid's bold and high-risk WalesCan.com website and strategy may seem foolhardy to some now, but I reckon, give a few years and it will become mainstream.

Myfanwy Davies looks at how Independence would affect her community – Llanelli

My only plea for Plaid is to stop being so timid and so referential towards the British nationalists. As Adam Price notes in his blog, Brit Nat MP, Albert Owens, wants to see the end of a Welsh football team, or is at least willing to jeopardise it for the sake of British nationalism and nation building. Why doesn't Adam or the other Plaid MP's and AM's refer to Albert (who's a nice enough chap) as British nationalists? Is there still a lingering lack of self-confidence, or self-censorship within the Plaid elite, a deep fear of Labour? I don't know. In any case, if fighting for an independent Welsh football team is Welsh nationalist, then it stands to reason that fighting for an independent British football team is British nationalist. Come on - "hyder yn ein hunain" as they say in Welsh - confidence in ourselves.

More of CanWales and more of calling British nationalists by their true description - British nationalists!

Independent Wales Facebook Group

2009-02-15T13:49:00.004Z

There is also a Facebook group called AN INDEPENDENT WALES, with over 2,600 members. Join now!

New Forum - Ideas for building an Independent Wales

2009-02-11T23:22:00.004Z

Just recently came across this forum "Syniadau - Ideas for building an Independent Wales". It's a great place to discuss Welsh Independence. Below is some text taken from their homepage...

One day Wales will be an independent nation, taking its place at the United Nations, in Europe, and on the international stage on the same basis and with the same status as the other nations of the world... If you share this vision, this site is intended to provide a platform for the exchange of ideas that will help make it a reality.

The basis premise that underlies the way this site has been set up is that an independent Wales will need to be rather different from what it is now. Every country needs to have a framework of fundamental structures and institutions in place in order to safeguard the wellbeing, prosperity and security of its people. Wales does have some of these and with the progress of devolution is gaining more, but we are some way from having all of them. Therefore we need to work out how to develop these structures so as to pave the way for Wales to become an independent nation.

The site has two main sections. The first address the different aspects of what shape an independent Wales should take, and is split into a number of separate forums for each subject. The second section deals with the more general strategies and tactics we need to adopt to win the hearts and minds of our fellow countrymen and women. At the start of each forum there is a brief About this Forum explanation of the sort of issues that we might discuss, which is meant to be suggestive rather than restrictive.

It stands to reason that most of those who contribute to this forum are likely to be Plaid Cymru supporters, but we in no way want to limit contributions. There are supporters of other political parties who want independence, and there are indeed people who support Plaid Cymru who do not want independence. Anyone who wants to present a point of view or participate in any discussion is free to do so. This might well include those who wish to see greater devolution for Wales within the context of the United Kingdom, and it might even include those who are against devolution altogether, provided their opinions are offered in a constructive way.

Independence on the agenda again - Tomos Livingstone

2008-08-10T22:52:00.004+01:00

A good column by Tomos Livingstone in yesterday's Western Mail:

Independence on the agenda again

Aug 9 2008 by Tomos Livingstone, Western Mail

INDEPENDENCE, a taboo subject in the recent past even for those Welsh politicians who supported the idea, has stepped subtly back into the limelight.

Developments in Scotland, where a popular SNP administration rules at Holyrood, and David Cameron’s flirtation with a rights-for-England agenda, mean Wales has to take what used to be called “the National Question” seriously again.

Independence might not command much support among the public – 10-15% depending on which opinion poll you choose – but Plaid Cymru now feels confident enough to launch its Independence Initiative, a group within the party aimed at debating the idea.

Whereas once Plaid toned down talk of independence for fear of scaring away voters, this week we had Helen Mary Jones in full battle cry with a piece for this newspaper setting out the case for going it alone. So it seems a good moment to report briefly on some of my own research into the subject: namely whether the sums can be made to add up.

It’s incredibly difficult to get a definitive answer but there are some interesting pointers as to what a Welsh state’s balance sheet might look like. According to Oxford Economics, Wales raised £17.8bn in taxes (income, national insurance, corporation tax etc) in the financial year 2005-06. That would pay for public spending levels of around £6,000 per head; in fact, in 2005-06 Welsh public spending (by Westminster and WAG) was £7,666 a head.

Aha, I hear you cry: proof that Wales can’t afford independence. But every Government borrows to balance the books, and an independent Welsh administration would be no different. To plug the spending gap, Wales would need to borrow between £1.7bn and £3bn each year, depending on which economist or academic you ask (I’ve tried a few), plus the proportion of UK debt it would presumably inherit by leaving the Union.

Sounds like a lot, but bear in mind Welsh GDP in 2005-06 totalled around £42bn, according to the Office for National Statistics. You could borrow £16bn and still be within Gordon Brown’s golden rules on debt, although whether that would be prudent, still less whether any bank would lend the cash, is another matter entirely.

Plenty of other things need to be taken into account: EU funds would presumably still come to Wales; an independent Wales may decide to vary its tax regime one way or the other, skewing the figures; and try working out where defence spending fits into all this and you’re in for a fruitless afternoon.

None of this is intended to make the definitive case one way or the other. If anyone has a clearer body of work on a theoretical independent Wales, please tell me. I think it might become a pretty useful document in the decade ahead.

Independent Wales can win - Helen Mary Jones

2008-08-05T22:37:00.000+01:00

Below is a copy of an article written by Helen Mary Jones in the Western Mail on August 5th 2008. Nice to see Plaid Cymru members openly discussing Independence. It's about time!

ON August 5, 1925, during the Eisteddfod in Pwllheli, a small group met to create Plaid Cymru, a movement formed out of the desire to put the interests of Wales first. They came from all parts of Wales. From small beginnings, our predecessors pressed the case for freedom for our nation. So, it is fitting that during another Eisteddfod, I write about the initiative that will step up our efforts to secure independence for our nation.

The founders of our party realised that Wales needed a party of Wales, because the London parties would always ignore our country. They had faith, as we still have faith, that the people of Wales have the talent, skill and courage to take our place on the world stage. That Wales can do it. They knew it would be a long road, but they never waivered.

Plaid Cymru has an ultimate goal, a vision for our country. Our vision is of an independent Wales standing shoulder to shoulder with the nations of the world and extending a hand of friendship both within and beyond these islands. Our vision of an independent Wales is rooted in the needs of the everyday lives of the people of Wales.

Our love for our country is matched by our confidence in our country, our people and our land. We are confident that steering our own course we can build a modern, just and prosperous nation – something that government from London has failed to do.

The London parties, the unionists, have obstructed us. They don’t want Wales to be an independent and free nation. They want us to think that we will have to rely on London forever. That we cannot stand on our own two feet.

They say Wales can’t; we say Wales can. They talk our country and our people down, because they want the status quo. They lack faith in the people of Wales.

The unionists say we are too poor to become an independent nation. That’s just not the case. Global experience demonstrates that, in today’s developed world, neither a country’s size nor its location are barriers to success. The only poverty that is absolutely self-sustaining is the poverty of our imagination, our self-belief.

Our opponents say we want to break up Britain. We seek not to break up, but to rebuild. Rebuild the nations of Britain on the basis of equality, strengthening the bonds of friendship between the nations of Britain. It’s not a surprise that some MPs are the ones who argue for keeping control in London – their jobs are at risk.

There are some who say that campaigning for an independent Wales is narrow-minded. But for hundreds of years those same people, the politicians in London have been telling us that only London knows best, that only officials and politicians in Whitehall can make things work. Aren’t they the narrow-minded ones?

There are those who argue that Wales’ constitutional status is an irrelevance. Yet, in Scotland, they will be scrapping the hugely unpopular council tax, relieving the tax burden from those on the lowest incomes. Such a change is not possible in Wales because of the limited powers of our current National Assembly. Strengthening our constitution is the key to delivering social justice for our citizens.

The London parties claim Wales is too small and insignificant to fight its corner on the international stage. But, half the members of the UN are smaller than, or the same size as Wales. In Europe, the smaller nations often perform best economically and socially. The citizens of small and medium-sized independent countries such as Ireland and Sweden are wealthier and healthier. The people of Wales deserve such a future.

Take Iceland as an example. It has a population of around 300,000 and is the tenth most prosperous country in the world (by GDP per capita) according to the International Monetary Fund. It is also the second most equal society in Europe. If Iceland can do it, Wales can. Norway is the third most prosperous country in the world. Ireland is the seventh most prosperous country in the world. The people of Wales could be just as prosperous as those small independent countries. In fact, eight of the 10 richest countries in the world have a population of less than 10 million.

The question the London-based parties always refuse to answer is what they think makes the people of Wales inferior to the people of Ireland, Iceland, Finland or Norway. They cannot answer because of course we are not inferior. We could be a real success as a small independent nation in Europe.

I believe we in Wales should take our place among the nations of the world as an outward-looking, equal and prosperous nation. The journey towards independence is one that must be led by the people of Wales, because it is the people who are sovereign. Every significant step along the way will be subject to a referendum.

Of course, our immediate job as a party is to continue to deliver in the One Wales government and secure a successful outcome in a referendum before 2011 for more Assembly powers.

But we need to keep sight of our ultimate goal. That’s why the launch of the Independence Initiative is so important.

There is no doubt that the London parties will oppose us until the bitter end, but our history tells us that by persevering we will succeed.

Helen Mary Jones AM - Plaid Cymru

Plaid’s ‘party within a party’ will argue case for Wales to become independent

2008-07-06T00:57:00.004+01:00

Article from Western Mail, June 24 2008:

Plaid’s ‘party within a party’ will argue case for Wales to become independent

Jun 24 2008 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail

PLAID CYMRU has approved the launch of a new “party within a party” aimed at arguing the case for an independent Wales.

The Independence Initiative, which will be officially announced later in the summer, is the brainchild of Plaid MP Adam Price, who says it is essential that the party’s long-term aspiration is articulated for the benefit of a new generation.

Although the new group has been endorsed by Plaid’s national executive, some in the party’s hierarchy are likely to see it as an unwelcome distraction. Opinion polls consistently show support for Welsh independence hovering at little more than 10% of the population. Only last month a poll said only 25% of Plaid supporters favoured independence, with nearly twice as many preferring a Scottish-style Parliament with law-making powers.

But Mr Price said: “We need a forum within the party where we can debate our long-term constitutional aim. It’s difficult for the party leadership to focus on the goal of independence because it’s not seen as relevant to the current state of Wales’ political development.

“One day, however, the time will come when we do have to focus on that question, and we need to debate within the party what an independent Wales would look like.

“We also need to create a new generation of nationalists. The majority of people joining Plaid are enthused by a passion for Wales to become a full nation, an independent state. The Independence Initiative will provide a forum where ideas can be developed and articles published.

“There won’t be a separate membership, and of course people will be encouraged to take part in the wider activities of the party.

“The message we need to get across is that Wales is only being held back by a lack of self-confidence. Many younger people do have that confidence, and that is what we need to tap into.”

Mr Price said Wales could take inspiration from many small countries which had thrived because of decisions they had been able to take because they were independent: “Iceland, with the population of Cardiff, has achieved a very impressive economic growth rate of 10% thanks to an imaginative use of the tools and resources available to it.

“It has developed a lucrative tourism industry and is a world leader in ‘bioinfomatics’, using genetic memory to diagnose health conditions.”

The MP said that in the past, it was large nations that had driven economic progress because of their privileged access to overseas markets and their military might.

“In a world of global markets, that is no longer the case. Small countries have the opportunity to be more nimble than the lumbering giants. Often, when we from Wales visit successful small independent countries, we have mixed feelings of admiration and regret. Admiration because of what they have been able to achieve, and regret that we aren’t in the same position.

“Another reason small nations do very well is because they don’t tend to be riddled with the kind of class tensions that exist in bigger countries. There isn’t the same contrast between the very rich and the very poor but a greater sense of social cohesion, with people being more prepared to all pull together.

“I strongly believe that Wales has been held back. It’s possible to argue that we’ve been in economic decline as a nation for over 80 years, since the slump in the price of coal in 1924.

“Sometimes people use the argument that we’re too poor to be independent. Instead, we should turn the question round and ask why we are so poor, and what can we do about it. There’s nothing in our genes that makes us incapable of running our own affairs effectively, and I am convinced that if we had the economic tools available to us that come with independence, we could create a more prosperous, self-confident Wales.”

Wales Resurgent - Gwynfor Evans

2008-03-27T23:24:00.001Z

The audio comes from a record by Gwynfor Evans released after his election victory in Carmarthen in 1966 to become Plaid Cymru's 1st ever MP. Audio - Wren Records, Christopher Davies Ltd, Llandybie, Carmarthenshire. Pictures - from the web and other sources. The following text was written by Islwyn Ffowc Elis and appeared on the sleave of the Record.

GWYNFOR EVANS is President of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh National Party, and is now its first MP for Carmarthen. Born and bred in Barry, Glamorganshire, and a Law graduate of Aberystwyth and Oxford, he returned to the Carmarthenshire of his forebears to start a market garden which helps to provide employment in a rural area. He is married with seven children.

He has written much, and travelled more, to proclaim the message of Welsh freedom in all parts of Wales and beyond. He is immensely respected for his brilliance and integrity and is looked upon by many thousands of his countrymen as the herald of the new Wales.

Keep to your promise Rhodri - Welsh Language Daily Newspaper

2008-02-20T17:43:00.000Z

SIGN THE ONLINE PETITION - http://deiseb.cymdeithas.org/

Keep to your promise Rhodri - Welsh Language Daily Newspaper:

We call on you as minister to ensure that the government honours its clear promise to establish a Welsh language daily newspaper announced in One Wales.

"We will expand the funding and support for Welsh-medium magazines and newspapers, including the establishment of a Welsh-language daily newspaper."

We ask for a new statement from the government that sufficient funds will be set aside specifically to establish a national daily newspaper in the Welsh language.

What's good for the Lander...

2008-01-07T10:53:00.000Z

On 1st January 2008, 8 of the 16 German Lander (or states) introduced public smoking bans similar to the one we now have in Wales. Each of the states was free to make its own decision, because under the German federal law, all legislative power resides at the State level, unless specifically reserved under the ‘Basic law’ for the federal government. Consequently, the German Lander governments all have considerably more power than say the Scottish Parliament, let alone the Senedd, and even retain the right to conduct their own international relations.

The largest German state has a population of 18 million, less than half the size of England, and if Wales were part of a federal Germany we would be right in the middle of the rankings, with 8 states larger than us and 8 states smaller.

Yet the British government considers that we are too small a nation to manage our own affairs – oh - and who set up the system of German government?

Yes you guessed - the British......

Life in the Cayman Islands

2007-12-27T06:59:00.000Z

Most of us have one – a sticker on the car which proudly displays CYM in place of a GB sticker. There is only one slight problem – according to the International Standards Organisation this is the three-digit code for the Cayman Islands. I am sure this is a lovely place, but I want to live in Cymru/Wales.

Among their many publications, the International Standards Organisation (with the support of the United Nations) publish a series of standards (ISO 3166) which agree on the recognized short and official names of countries (eg France and The Republic of France). It also standardises on a short two-digit code to represent the country (FR), which is commonly seen on car number plates and internet domains.

There is also an alternative three digit code (FRA) which is used for some other official purposes, including on passports).

But unfortunately CYM is the three-digit code for Cayman Islands (which actually uses KM as its 2-digit code). As far as two-digit codes go, CY has already been taken by Cyprus, CM by Cameroon (who also use the 3-digit code CMR) , CR by Costa Rica and CU by Cuba. Maybe we should be looking instead at ‘billingual’ codes of CW and maybe CMW?

Cymru/Wales is not to small to warrant such coding by ISO – When I was younger I remember that cars from Guernsey had GBG on their number plates. These have since been changed by ISO to a 2-digit GG with the 3 digit code becoming GGY.

ISO will not allocate a coding to us yet as we are not an independent state, but they can reserve such codes for future use if requested to by the UK government (who requested the change for Guernsey as well as Jersey and Isle of Man). We should campaign for the Senedd to make this request to the ISO on behalf of the UK Government.

p.s. Cymuned’s dot.cym campaign is commendable, but this is for a ‘second-tier’ designation based on language use - we should also be aiming for a ‘first-tier’ .CW domain to represent an independent Wales!

26% Now Favour Independence

2007-12-17T03:49:00.000Z

Well, that is stretching the truth a little bit, but in the bizarre Daily Telegraph campaign last week to remind its English readers that they were all British (except for the Scottish - and who are the Welsh anyway?), one of the questions asked:

Would you like the Union between England and Scotland to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end so that both England and
Scotland become independent of each other?

Respondents in Wales said that 22% favoured independence, 62% the union and 16% dont know. So yes - out of those expressing a preference, 26% favoured Independence - for England & Scotland.

Not really a question on Welsh independence, but it is difficult to see how England could become independent from the 'Union' while Wales remains in (with who?).

We need to see more opinion polls on the subject of Welsh independence, because as the debate becomes more open in Scotland, and now in England, it is not really being discussed very loudly in Wales. Despite this lack of debate, up to 1/3rd of the population are now considering independence. How many more will join as the discussion opens up??

ps for those of you who were concerned that I had not been posting because I was in a Cardiff police cell, rest assured - they will never catch me!!

Beyond the Vale

2007-11-22T06:05:00.000Z

In the 16th Century, as part of the colonization of Ireland under the English Crown ‘plantations’ were established where English & Scottish settlers were placed to displace the local population. While only partially successful in the ‘Pale’ of Dublin, this tactic was very effective in Ulster, and which ultimately led to ‘the Troubles’ and the partition of Ireland.

A similar tactic was also used in Wales, most notably in South Pembrokeshire, where Flemish settlers were used to displace and dilute the local Welsh speaking population, and the linguistic divide is still very apparent today.

While I sympathise with those who oppose the ‘University of Death’ at St Athan on pacifist grounds, I oppose it because it represents nothing more than a repeat of these earlier settlement tactics, brought forward to the modern day.

Peter Hain and the promoters of the scheme claim that it will bring 5,000 jobs to Wales and will be a huge boost to the local economy – not just in the Vale of Glamorgan but in neighbouring Cardiff and Bridgend. But lets look at this more objectively and ask what jobs will be created and who will fill them.

In the short term, around 1,000 construction jobs in will be created during building of the facilities, and while these will be mostly filled locally, they will only be temporary lasting no more than two years.

Of the permanent jobs, around 3,000 will be filled by trainers, technicians, military support staff and civil servants. These jobs will not be filled locally, but will be transferred from existing military bases elsewhere in the UK, and many of the positions will be viewed as ‘expatriate’ postings.

Potentially 2,000 jobs could be filled locally, but these will be mostly low paid support jobs including cleaners, cooks, secretaries, administrative staff etc. While these jobs are better than none at all, they must be balanced against the fact that the incoming transferred staff will also be bringing their families, many of whom will be looking for work locally and these new job seekers will largely offset the new jobs created.

There will undoubtedly be a boost to the local economy as money is spent in shops & pubs, houses are rented etc but this will also increase prices and put a strain on local services and we can soon expect a vociferous minority to demand ‘English-curriculum’ schooling and opt-outs from Welsh lessons.

The local economic benefits from this project are questionable (incidentally I would also raise similar concerns about the proposed Severn Barrage), but this is not why the project is proposed.

This is simply a 21st Century Plantation - designed to dilute the local population and defuse nationalist sentiments.

Get Dafydd Iwan in to the charts for Ray Gravell

2007-11-08T21:33:00.000Z

Dafydd Iwan was Grav's favourite singer and it's well known that before games he would sing Dafydd Iwan songs emotionally especially 'Yma o hyd'! Dafydd Iwan will be singing at Ray Gravell's public service at Stradey Park in Llanelli at 1pm on 15 November.

A campaign has started on Facebook to try and get the song 'Yma o Hyd' into the top 40 of the UK Charts this week in memory of Ray Gravell, and Dafydd Iwan has stated that profits will be going to the Ray Gravell memorial trust. Please buy 'Yma o hyd' online from itunes - it will only cost you 79p. Going by recent trends, 'Yma o Hyd' should reach the top 40 of the UK Charts if more than 3,000 copies ar sold on Itunes. 2,000 people on Facebook have already promised to buy the single. Please buy THIS VERSION now (Dafydd Iwan ac Ar Log - Album: Yma o Hyd - Song 21: Yma o Hyd)

The song must be purchased before the end of Saturday to be included in the Sunday UK Charts. The song is currently No. 1 in the iTunes 'Folk' Chart and No. 99 in the iTunes general Charts.

Supermarket Carbon Footprint - Somerfield Llantarnam, Cwmbrân

2007-11-05T14:43:00.000Z

On my way home from work I passed up through Casnewydd onwards up to the Cwmbrân area when I realised I needed to go and do a bit of basic shopping.

I turned into the Somerfield Supermarket in Llantarnam near Cwmbrân.
Shock and horror total AWE ! not one Welsh pint of milk, not one product displaying any dragon and worse everything on the shelves appeared to have come from hundreds of miles away. Like the milk from JERSEY and Guernsey and YORKSHIRE !

I sought out the manager but only got the deputy manager - bemused he politely passed off - more like brushed off my comment, "that the stores' Carbon Footprint must be as big as an Elephant if not as big as a Mammoth since everything comes from anywhere except Wales." When I asked him why do you buy everything from the British and not from Wales - and further commented, "that nothing in here is from Wales" - he replied, " I do not not know why ." I asked that he convey my dismay to his manager. He luke warmly agreed and walked off. Am I the only one that has ever made this sort of complaint?

I then left the store with nothing in my trolley not having spent one single penny and went to ASDA where Welsh produce is sold.

An independent Wales could ensure that all supermarkets in Wales sell a percentage of Welsh produce, it is readily available.

John Frost

Economic ABC

2007-11-05T05:01:00.000Z

If an Independent Wales is to succeed, then we have to develop a stronger economy. I believe that employment activities can be broadly classified into three types:

A: Wealth Creators
B: Wealth Distributors
C: Wealth Consumers

The Wealth Creators are those jobs that result in something physical being produced – these include the older traditional industries such as coal and steel, as well as manufacturing, agriculture and construction, etc. These jobs are the engine that drives the economy – for every job created here, one or more are typically created elsewhere in support industries. We should do everything in our power to encourage and develop these ‘Type A’ jobs, but which should generally be provided by the private sector. This should include distribution of grants but I would prefer to give tax-breaks instead – give new enterprises a 5 year holiday against corporation tax. This tax loss would be offset by taxes paid by new jobs created elsewhere in the economy.

The Wealth Distributors are those jobs that do not make anything physical, but support the Wealth Creators – these include transport, financial services, IT, retail, etc. These are real, valuable jobs, but they simply move existing money around – they do not create any new money. These jobs do not directly add anything to the economy, and are dependent on the Wealth Creators for their success – they follow the economy – they do not drive it. The creation of ‘Type B’ jobs should be only passively encouraged and facilitated, for example by the removal of red-tape. However, they should not receive any precious grants, and tax-holidays should be limited to say 2 years.

The biggest legacy of the Thatcherite years was her policy of eradicating the Wealth Creators in favour of the Wealth Distributors. This worked well in the City of London, where the distribution is on a global level – but has resulted in the devastation of many Welsh communities. I am not advocating reopening the mines, as there were underlying reasons for their closure – but we have to replace them with real jobs – that are wealth creating and will encourage the creation of others, for example in manufacturing and construction.

The Wealth Consumers are those jobs that do not directly contribute to the economy, and are generally funded as public services – these include health, education, government etc. Despite their negative name, these jobs are an essential part of our society, without which the economy can not operate. But we can only afford a limited number of these jobs, and must ensure that these deliver value for money. I consider these jobs to be broken down into a further 3 types:

C1: Service Providers
C2: Service Supporters
C3: Service Passengers

The Service Providers are the front line jobs – the teachers, doctors, even our AMs. To provide these services effectively we must establish service levels (eg the right to a doctors appointment within 24 hours) and ensure that we provide the right resources to meet these service levels (eg one dentist per 10,000 population). These service levels should become manifesto commitments for our politicians and they should be judged against them.

The Service Supporters are those essential support staff, without whom the Service Providers can not function, eg school secretaries, hospital cleaners. We must develop ways to ensure that these support services are provided in the most efficient manner, using benchmarking to compare different service providers (eg Hospital A costs £x per patient to clean – Hospital B only costs £y – how can Hospital A match the Hospital B level?). This is not a question of ideology but of efficiency. I do not advocate that all such positions should be in the private or public sector – simply that we must spend our limited money wisely to ensure that our service target levels are met.

The Service Passengers are those staff that exist but which do not directly contribute to meeting any agreed service level, for example management, administration, compliance officers etc. While some of these staff are necessary, others clearly are not, and some hard questions need to be asked - Why does Powys County Council need a Communications Manager? Why does Bridgend Council employ an IT Manager to read staff’s e-mails? Why do some councils want to employ race relations compliance officers? What would happen if these positions simply ceased to exist ?? Some of these positions are a necessary evil, but many are simply jobs for the boys, and usually highly paid ones.

I suggest that we should grade every job in our local councils and public sector bodies as either C1, C2 or C3, and publish annual statistics on the percenteage of such jobs, and their cost.

The harsh reality is that in Wales we have become too dependent on such Wealth Consuming jobs, and that there are too many Service Passengers. Of course, this issue is not related to Welsh Independence, and can be adressed at any time. But this issue will become critical following Independence as we will have limited resources, and we will have to carefully prioritise our spending.

Scandinavia

2007-11-04T04:13:00.000Z

This article was published on the Cross of St George website, in support of English Independence. It is not quite as catchy (or pronounceable) as the Balkanisation of Britain, but the Scandinaviaisation of Britain has some good examples:

Scandinavia, a region of five countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland), has seen its constituent countries form different unions with each other from the Middle Ages to 1918, until Iceland became the last independent nation. They share similar cultures and similar languages, but have remained separate sovereign nations ever since.

So for a lot of people, a possible break-up to the United Kingdom is something they fear, believing this would cause many problems and challenges. The prospect of this raises many questions. However, one only has to look towards Scandinavia to realise all these questions have already been answered:

Would the home nations be economically viable?
The Scandinavian nations top all tables on average wealth per person. Size of country has no bearing on economic success. No reason why the home nations can’t be economically successful too.

Isn’t Britain stronger together? Wouldn’t England, for example, have a lower standing in the world than Britain?
If enjoying a high standing in the world means participating in numerous foreign wars, who needs that? Does a Swede, who lives in a wealthy nation, and has not seen his country fight a war for 200 years, envy our status? I seriously doubt it.
Perhaps countries like the USA, Russia and China dominate world markets, but their citizens don’t enjoy the same wealth per person as in the Scandinavian countries.
And if a lower world standing also means not sending men into space or topping an Olympic medals table – then I can live with that.

Would there be passport/border controls between the home nations?
No. There are no border controls between the Nordic countries.

Many Scottish people have relatives in England and vice versa. Doesn’t this make independence difficult?
Not when there’s free movement of people between nations as per Scandinavia.

What would be the constitutional position with the monarchy?
In Scandinavia, some countries are kingdoms, some are republics. It’s up to each home nation to decide their constitutional position.

Wouldn’t there be problems if England was a member of the EU, but Scotland and Wales weren’t?
Denmark and Sweden are in the EU, but Norway isn’t, and there are no problems.

And wouldn’t it be difficult for Scotland and Wales economically, when they have a much larger economic neighbour in England?
Hasn’t affected Denmark, who share their border with Germany.

Would the break-up of Britain lead to problems with security? Especially if England has an independent Scotland on its northern border?
Why? Is there a problem with security in Scandinavia? Is England likely to do something that will prompt an invasion of a foreign army? If Scotland did, would that automatically mean this army would move onto England? Even in the dark days of WW2, when Germany invaded Norway and Denmark, this didn’t spread to Sweden.

But on a small island, there must be issues where there needs to be co-operation?
Indeed, and this is true in Scandinavia. However, these issues are dealt with by the Nordic Council, without impairing any of the nations’ sovereignty.

I don’t know if I’ve listed all of the questions regarding this issue, but I’m sure if you need an answer – look to Scandinavia.

Ray Gravell 1951-2007

2007-11-02T09:10:00.000Z

I was very saddened to hear of the death of Ray Gravell - Not only a highly successful rugby player but one of the most passionate Welshmen of our generation.

Ray Gravell was a huge man in every sense, and would have been an ideal candidate for the position of President of an Independent Welsh Republic.

Ray Gravell 1951 - 2007
Rest In Peace.

Rhodri Morgan's Flying Circus

2007-10-29T10:07:00.000Z

Voter: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.
I wish to complain about this government what I voted for not 100 days ago from this very booth
Pain: Oh yes, the, uh, the National Assembly For Wales...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!
No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

Look, matey, I know a dead government when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.
No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable institution, the Welsh Assembly, idn'it, ay? Beautiful building!

The building don't enter into it. It's stone dead.
Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!

All right then, if he's restin', I'll wake him up! (shouting at the cage) 'Ello, Rhodri! I've got a lovely Legislative Competence Order for you if you show...

(Pain hits the desk)
There, he moved!

No, he didn't, that was you hitting the desk!
I never!!

Yes, you did!
I never, never did anything...

(yelling and hitting the cage repeatedly)
'ELLO RHODRI!!!!! Testing! Testing! Testing! Testing! This is your 1999 alarm call!
(Takes Rhodri out of the bay and thumps his head on the pavement. Throws him up in the air and watches him plummet to the floor.)
Now that's what I call a dead Government.
No, no.....No, 'e's stunned!

STUNNED?!?
Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Welsh Assemblies stun easily, major.

Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That Government is definitely deceased, and when I voted for it not 100 days ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.
Well, he's...he's, ah...probably pining for the Valleys.

PININ' for the VALLEYS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?, look, why did he fall flat on his back the moment I got 'im home?
The Welsh Assembly prefers keepin' on it's back! Remarkable institution, id'nit, squire? Lovely building!

Look, I took the liberty of examining that government when I got it home, and I discovered the only reason that it had been sitting in the Bay in the first place was that it had been NAILED there.
Well, o'course it was nailed there! If I hadn't nailed that Senedd down, it would have nuzzled up to those bars, bent 'em apart with its beak, and just like Alex Salmond...
VOOM! Feeweeweewee!

"VOOM"?!? Mate, this Senedd wouldn't "voom" if you put four million volts through it! 'E's bleedin' demised!
No no! 'E's pining!

'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This Assembly is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the Bay 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-GOVERNMENT!

Our Man in Hafana

2007-10-22T10:49:00.000Z

One question which has been asked regarding an Independent Wales, is will we have foreign embassies, and how many?

Firstly, we will need to have a network of foreign embassies, consulates and missions, for the same reason that other countries do – to conduct foreign policy, to maintain international relations, to assist our citizens abroad, and to facilitate countries, organizations and individuals who wish to visit or do business with us.

The UK currently has over 200 such establishments, costing millions to maintain, but in keeping with our more modest aspirations, we should be looking at a similar number as Ireland or Denmark, which have only around 40-50 diplomatic missions, many of which are little more than a suite of offices – like them we simply won’t need grandiose embassy compounds, as we do not need to project (or protect) any imperialistic ambitions.

We could anticipate fully serviced embassies in our immediate neighbours – England, Ireland, Scotland & France - and with our major trading partners – Germany, USA & Japan. Elsewhere we can use strategically placed embassies and consuls to support more than one country – for example an embassy in Brussels could support Netherlands, Belgium & Luxembourg, as well as dealing with the EU & Nato. This isn’t a radical idea – others already do this, and with the help of the internet and express couriers, many countries have rationalised their consular network.

Outside of Europe, I would envisage regional consular offices in maybe South Africa (serving all of Southern Africa); Dubai (for the Middle East & North Africa); India (for South Asia); Hong Kong (for SE Asia); Australia (Oceania). In the USA we might have an Embassy in Washington plus a Mission in New York, which would serve the UN, and maybe a consulate in Los Angeles which would also cover Central America. We would only need a nominal presence in South America, and maybe here we could share facilities with say Ireland or Scotland – Belgium and Netherlands already successfully operate shared consulates for example.

There is obviously a cost to operating an independent foreign diplomatic network, but the costs of this do not need to be excessive. Also we need to remember that we are already paying for a share of the UK’s existing foreign missions, and that 5% of this current expenditure (our proportionate share) should largely cover our more modest requirements.

Plaid Repwblic?

2007-10-18T06:08:00.000Z

Plaid are still struggling to come to terms with their commitment to Independence – part of the problem is that when Wales achieves independence then there would be little point to Plaid as a separate political force – a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas. Plaid also have a problem with their commitment to ‘Community Based Socialism’ – a term which means different things to different people within the party and almost nothing to the voters.

Maybe it is time to dust off the party’s Republican commitment - I have previously suggested that an Independent Wales should be a republic based on the values

Rhyddid – Tegwch – Cymuned.

I suggest that if Plaid adopted these republican values, it could square its circular commitments to independence and socialism much more easily, and give itself a much stronger ‘raison d’etre’.

Rhyddid – while standing for Freedom in the form of Welsh Independence, this also stands for Liberty or personal freedom. Plaid should campaign for a Bill of Rights which would give individuals a set of inalienable rights – rights which can not be taken away by others. An example to put this in context could be that individuals would have the right to communicate in Welsh – a right that could not be voted away by a majority English speaking electorate. It would also give the Welsh electorate the sovereign right to determine the best form of government for itself.

Tegwch – In the American Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson (a proud Welshman) stated that ‘all men are created equal’, and equality is one of the guiding values of the French Republic, and most modern democracies. But being born equal and being treated equally in life is not the same thing, and I suggest that a better principle to follow would be Fairness. Everyone in Wales, regardless of gender, nationality, language or religion, should have the right to be treated fairly.

Cymuned – The Welsh people are all citizens of the Community of Wales. We will not agree to be subjects of the monarchy or aristocracy or any other form of inherited political power, including from the military, churches, trade unions, etc. All political power should be democratically vested in the people, who are expected to actively use this power and to participate in civic duties. Maybe this is what Plaid had in mind with its ‘community socialism’, but I think that it is time to drop the S word and concentrate on the C.

And yes – Republican means anti-monarchy and Plaid should not be afraid of standing up and announcing this loudly and clearly. There is nothing to fear from alienating the dwindling band of royalists in Wales, and much to gain by giving Plaid another clear USP which will find a lot of willing support particularly among the young.

Ymlaen Y Repwblic

Misinterpreting Reality

2007-10-08T17:22:00.000Z

This excellent analysis was posted by MH on the icWales Politics forum. It is worth reposting in full:

In the WM yesterday we had this story entitled "Wales Economy Worst in UK". It's well worth reading, it tells you a lot about how journalism works. The story was obtained from AP but, as is usual, newspapers that take it usually change the story around a bit... just to try and make it "their own". In this particular case, though, the journalist decided to mix two stories (i.e. Halifax and an ONS regular report) and deliberately mix them up. Hardly surprisingly, this is done for political reasons. People like Bob and his bogie's pick up on it without having the first clue what the statistics mean... they only read the headline and the political conclusion. So at the risk of teaching the more sensible among us how to suck eggs, let's look at the figures and see what they mean. The Halifax story is primarily about house prices compared with earnings, concentrating on the north-south divide.

That's how it was reported elsewhere, for example in the Telegraph. Wales was not singled out at all, it was included in Halifax's "northern area". But this wasn't quite "spicy enough" for our junior hack. So he decided to embellish it, by using ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. But the figures he quoted have not been published recently, so it took a bit of research to find where they he got them from.

The only place I could find the figures online was here (pdf). This is the UK Economic Indicators report of June 2007 (this particular version highlights the Southwest, but no matter). The essence of the criticism the WM story makes is this:

Wales contributes least to the UK economy, with a GDP of only £13,813 per head. By contrast, London has boomed during this time, with a 13% increase to £24,075.

We can all see the raw figures in table 5, on page 11. They are the estimated 2005 figures for GVA (gross value added) and not GDP. But most people don't know the difference. When you see a mention of GDP in the press, 9 times out of 10 they mean GVA. But let's look at the five year difference. London went up from £18,394 to £24,075 - an increase of 30%. Wales went up from £10,920 to £13,813 - an increase of 26.5%. True, not as good as London. But certainly not too shabby. However the figures show that Wales GDP has been rising steadily every single year (the figures go back to 1997).

There is no real reason to be over-concerned about GVA, because it's only one side of the equation. If the cost of living is greater somewhere else, then you need more money to pay for it. On its own, it says nothing about standard of living or quality of life. But we need to be quite clear about what this "contribution to the UK economy" is. The main way this figure is arrived at is on the basis of taxation. And whereas things like personal income tax and NI can be accurately assessed for each country and region, other things simply aren't. These include Corporation Tax and VAT.

As myself and others have said before, the VAT you pay in Tesco is accounted as having come from Tesco's head office in Cheshunt. The Corporation Tax companies pay is accounted as having come from their head offices, not the place where their workers actually produce the wealth. Therefore these figures are no indication whatsoever of how much Wales "contributes to the economy".

People think London is the powerhouse of the UK economy. But that's just because more headquarters are based there. In fact if you look at other indicators in detail, the opposite is more likely to be true. Let's look at unemployment. Ask any half dozen people and they'll tell you that it's bad in Wales. Well, I won't argue, it could be much better. But let's look at Table 18, page 28. The unemployment rate in Wales is 5.5%. For England as a whole it is higher, at 5.7%. For London it is 7.3%. Wales has less unemployment than England, and much less than London. Let's look at another indicator, exports. Back in January, to counter the idea that Wales exports "zilch" I said this:

Look at the ACTUAL FIGURES. Download this document (pdf). Look at table 1 on page 2 and you'll see that Welsh exports (EU and World) for 2004 and 2005 were £8.3bn and £8.6bn respectively, 5% and 4.7% of the UK as a whole. For the latest quarter they're at 5.1%. With a population of 2.96m out of 60.21m, the pro-rata should be 4.9% ... so Wales is performing EQUALLY with every other part of the UK. We can stand on our own perfectly well. In terms of our exports to the EU alone, we in fact do a few percentage points better (5.9%, 5.4% and 5.2%).

Now look at this story from a rather better journalist at the WM (quoted below):

Leading way on transatlantic trade Sep 12 2007 by Aled Blake, Western Mail LATEST figures show that exports from Wales to North America have increased at a rate nearly double the UK average since 1999. Official statistics from HM Revenue and Customs show that, since devolution, exports from Wales to North America have grown by 43%, compared with a UK average of 26%. Welsh exports for the year to June were up 1% on the previous four quarters to reach a total of £9.2bn – the UK equivalent figure was down 11.6%... Sales of Welsh products to North America have grown from £1.4bn in 2004 to £2bn in 2006. Over the past three months, sales totalled £569m compared with £484m for the same period last year. North America is by far the most important export market for Wales outside the EU – which bought £5.7bn worth of Welsh goods in 2006. During the year to June, the Wales percentage increase in export sales was the third highest among the UK countries and English regions, with Northern Ireland and the North East having the highest percentage increases over the same period. Overall, total Welsh exports have grown strongly over the recent years from £8.3bn in 2004, to £8.64bn in 2005 to the latest figure of £9.15bn for the year to June 2007. In terms of sectors, the most valuable for overseas sales was machinery and transport which accounted for £3.4bn worth of exports last year.

We have good reason to be proud of what we produce in Wales (but not complacent, because we want it to improve). The picture is very clear. We produce wealth in Wales, but the profits we earn get siphoned off, and get accounted as having come from elsewhere. - That somewhere else is, I'm afraid to say, usually London.

If it were not for the distorting effect of the UK Treasury's continuing refusal to properly account where taxes come from, we would see much more clearly that London has more claim to be the "basket case" of the UK economy. Poverty is greater. The amount government spends in London is greater (£1,100 a head more than Wales gets). But there are also some very rich people in London. It is a city of huge inequalities ... the direct result of over-centralization. In another topic, I've mentioned the amount of money that's being put into Crossrail. Where's our fair share of the pie?

Another example of how London is treated as a special case is the Olympics. This is apparently now going to be classed as a "UK" project. That will mean that an equivalent (Barnett) proportion of the money spent on East London's transport and infrastructure improvements will not be given to Wales or Scotland. Yet one more example of how "identifiable spending" depends on what the government chooses to identify.

Wise up! Wales' economy is not that bad. Our relative poverty has nothing to do with all we produce, but where the profits go. When people keep perpetuating myths, you need only ask what their agenda is.

It's obvious, isn't it? To make us believe that we're not capable of running our own country.

Thanks Gordon

2007-10-07T11:30:00.000Z

Just a few quick thoughts on Gordon Brown's dithering and eventual running away from an early Westminster General Election.

Firstly it reduces the risk of the following Westminster GE coinciding with the next Senedd election - It is important that WA elections are fought on Welsh issues and that differential voting practices develop.

More importantly, Welsh Labour will have to face the possibility of losing their Westminster friends in 2009, so they would be better off aiming for a Referendum on a Parliament before then. Otherwise they will face the prospect of having to plead with a Conservative SoS for any further powers.

(I have not been posting too much recently as my spare hours are fully occupied with the RWC - despite our early exit, it remains a fascinating tournament - normal service wil be resumed soon)

For Wales, See ........

2007-09-26T04:14:00.000Z

I was in a Travel Agents yesterday and I picked up the Qatar Airways Holiday brochure for Europe.

The holiday locations were arranged by country, and each page included 'Facts' about each country, including the country's official name. So,

France - Official Name - French Republic
Germany - Official Name - Federal Republic of Germany
Switzerland - Official Name - Swiss Confederation
United Kingdom - Official Name - England !!

Somebody doing some crystal ball gazing??

The Waiting Game

2007-09-17T10:06:00.000Z

There is an interesting poll out today showing how the level of support for devolution has changed over the last 10 years. It shows the support for Independence at 12% (14% in 1997); a Full Parliament 43% (20% in 1997); an Assembly 27% (28% in 1997); No Devolution 17% (40% in 1997).

I suggest looking at these figures differently – in 1997 40% of people were satisfied with the status quo while 60% wanted more devolution (up to and including independence). Today, with the Assembly already established 55% still want more devolution. The opinion split is almost the same – but with the battleground moved to a higher level.

By the time that this poll is repeated in another 10 years time, Wales should already have a full Parliament. I forecast that the new poll will be similar to the 1997 and 2007 results, with around half the electorate satisfied with the new status quo, and half wanting still more devolution. But next time around, more devolution will effectively mean independence.

Our time will come - we have to be patient.

The truth is out there......

2007-09-13T04:28:00.000Z

MOF points out in his blog, that it is impossible to prepare an accurate picture of the cost of Welsh independence because there is no published data on Welsh tax revenue.

A shop in Rhyl collects its VAT from Welsh spending, but this appears in the accounts of the Companies head office in Chester.

A factory in Treorchy collects its NI contributions from its Welsh workforce, but declares it in its company accounts in Birmingham.

The profits from a multinational car components firm, with its manufacturing base in Wales, are declared as that of its UK subsidiary from its London headquarters.

It would be a simple matter to declare the source of this income on a geographical basis - it would only take a few lines in company spreadsheets and a few lines of code in government databases.

I can not believe that at some stage the UK government has not carried out this excercise - just in case we got our way - and I am certain that if the figures demonstrated that an independent Wales would be quickly bankrupt then these figures would have already been published. If as I suspect the figures showed that an independent Wales would be more than capable of being self-sufficient then the figures would be locked away to gather dust in some dusty filing cabinet.

The truth is out there ..... probably kept in the LL files!

Our Right of Self-Determination

2007-09-02T09:08:00.000Z

In the UN’s Declaration of Human Rights it says that everyone has the right to a nationality and that no one should be arbitrarily deprived of a nationality. It establishes the principle of self determination in which every nation is entitled to a sovereign territorial state, and that every identifiable population should choose which state it belongs to.

A State is a legitimized administrative and decision-making institution. A state may be internationally recognised, and only states may be admitted as members of the United Nations. The United Kingdom is such a State.

A Nation is an identifiable population that shares either a common descent, language, culture or religion. Maybe more importantly, it is a population with a shared sense of identity. Wales is such a Nation.

States do not always coincide with nations, but when they do, the resulting Nation-State is usually a stable, cohesive unit with shared purpose and legitimacy. Denmark is a good example of a modern Nation-State.

There have been a number of examples throughout history of attempts to create Multi-National States – eg the Roman Empire, Austria-Hungary, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. These all relied on powerful central authorities to group different peoples together in a larger unified state. But as soon as the central authority lost its power, then so the state fragmented into its natural constituents – its nations.

The United Kingdom is also a Multi-National State with far more in common with these failed states than the government would care to admit, and if history is anything to go by its days are numbered.

Gordon Brown is attempting to make us all feel more British is an attempt to turn the UK (or is it only Britain?) into more of a stable Nation-State by emphasising a shared British identity, instead of the fragmented Welsh, Scottish & English identities. But unfortunately for him this is too little, too late. There are very few ‘British’ institutions for him to build on, and those few – for example the British Army, the Royal Family – are declining in importance with every year that passes, while the sense of Welsh, Scottish and even English consciousness grows daily. This can not be overturned by mandatory flag waving or creating artificial public holidays.

For the time being I carry my British passport in my pocket out of necessity - but I carry my Welsh identity in my heart with pride.

I demand my right of Welsh nationality, and the right to live in a sovereign Welsh state.

The Evolution of Devolution

2007-08-30T09:47:00.000Z

In the first devolution referendum we were offered nothing more than a glorified county council - yet Neil Kinnock and friends scared the electorate off with visions of a Welsh speaking Albania, and we lost our chance for a generation.

In 1999 we were offered a slightly better model, but this time the Kinnockites were not so successful in their scare tactics, and despite general public apathy, the case was narrowly won.

After two terms and no sign of any uniformed linguistic enforcement squads the Senedd has been generally accepted as an integral part of our society, and even the unionist Conservative party have dropped their opposition to devolution.

As the Senedd has progressively increased its powers it has also gained in credibility, and the battleground has moved significantly. In 1987 we were offered a choice between nominal devolution or the unionist status quo. Today the choice is between a more powerful legislative Parliament or maintaining our limited Assembly. Nobody is seriously advocating abolishing devolution.

However, by the time the third referendum is called I expect that the battleground will have shifted again. Independence will have been raised as a viable option, as will the establishment of a federal UK – many people who today oppose a parliament will then find themselves actively supporting one in order to counter the growing movement for independence. Nobody will be supporting a toothless Assembly.

A few more years down the road and I expect that Wales will have become a fully autonomous state within a federal UK – and that the final choice will be between Federalists and Separatists.

Evolution and not Revolution will deliver Independence.

We just have to give it enough time.

Independence back on the agenda

2007-08-28T08:28:00.000Z

For a long time, Plaid Cymru have been quiet on the issue of independence, but there is nothing as powerful as an idea whose time has come.

It is excellent news that Plaid are going to set up a commission to review the implications of independence, and what is more pleasing is the fact that the Western Mail are reporting the news objectively.

I am sure we can now expect hysterical rants and wailings from the unionists which will only strengthen our cause.

The State of the Union

2007-08-26T07:33:00.000Z

Imagine a land with a population of just under 3 million people – with an elected assembly with full law-making powers, able to raise its own taxes, in control of its police forces and even with a limited military capability. This land would cooperate fully with its neighbours, allowing unrestricted movement between them, and be part of a free market of over 300 million people. The land would agree to cede limited powers to a central government, but would fiercely defend its sovereignty from central interference.

Is this the post-devolution vision of Wales that frightens Neil Kinnock & friends so much?

Well no – it is actually the US State of Mississippi (or Iowa or Arkansas etc). The Americans are mature enough (!) to allow its people to run their own affairs without getting hysterical about economic meltdown and balkanization.

Why can our Westminster politicians not see that as long as they deny us the right to run our own affairs, that they are actually speeding up the break-up of the UK?

Trip to England?

2007-08-19T15:07:00.000Z

I received this anonymous email today. It may be of interest to some of you:

What are you doing on 15 - 16 September. How about celebrating Glyndwr Day (16th) and the tenth anniversary of the Referendum Yes vote with a visit to support the English Democrats at their In My Heart 2007 Conference in Leicester?

Isn't it time Welsh nationalists made links with English nationalists? Sure we'll get some flack, but there's no harm in talking. Don't believe the Brit Nat propaganda that English nationalism is inherently racists - the English Nats are open to all ethnic groups and religions. Saying that English nationalism is automatically racists is like saying all British nationalists are racists because the BNP believe in Britian as a nation state as does Gordon Brown.

It would be interesting to learn more about the Campaign for an English Parliament. Maybe a delegation of Welsh nationalists could ask for observer status and see what's going on there too.

Both ourselves and the English have a common enemy - British nationalism. It's time to talk. Who's interested?

English Democrats: www.englishdemocrats.org.uk
The CEP: www.thecep.org.uk

Wales on Sunday

2007-08-19T14:00:00.000Z

Following last weeks article in the Western Mail, the WoS has now joined the debate on independence.

It seems that Ray Gravell is in favour, Stuart Cable is undecided & Max Boyce is against.

Gripping stuff....... FFS

As Scotland is openly debating independence, our media turns out this drivel.

An Independent Wales Be Too Poor.....

2007-08-07T08:19:00.000Z

Wales is clearly one of the poorer parts of the UK, but this is relative. According to the International Monetary Fund, the UK has a GDP per Capita of around $35,000 making it the 12th richest country in the world.

I do not have exact figures for Wales available, but I have seen it quoted that Wales’s GDP per Capita is only 80% of the UK’s figure. This would put the Welsh figure at around $28,000, which would place us at around 26th place – out of more than 200 countries.

This would also place us around 12th place in the EU.

Would an independent Wales be poor? – only relatively.

We would actually be the envy of much of the world!!

An Independent Wales Would Be Too Small.....

2007-08-07T08:15:00.000Z

With a population of just under 3 million, Wales is a relatively small country.

According to Wikipedia there are 221 countries and territories in the world, and an independent Wales would slot in between the 135th largest country (Armenia @ 3 million) and the 136th country (Kuwait @ 2.8 million). In fact there would be 86 independent countries in the world smaller than Wales.

Within the European Union’s 27 states, Wales would fit between 21st placed Lithuania (3.4 million) and 22nd placed Latvia (2.3 million), and there would still be 6 smaller independent countries.

So would an independent Wales be small ? Yes.

Would it be too small ? Not at all!

Y Repwblic

2007-08-05T05:46:00.000Z

For those of you interested in Welsh Republicanism, there is a new forum that has been established to replace various older forums. It is still being tidied up but it is worth visiting as there is a lot of interesting information in the archives.

Go to: http://repwblic.informe.com and sign up to join the debate.

Vote now for Welsh Independence!

2007-07-25T19:17:00.000Z

Please vote for this Blog as the Best Welsh Political Blog 2007. Vote here...

Welsh Claim of Right

2007-07-16T11:13:00.000Z

We do hereby acknowedge the sovereign right of the Welsh people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount.

We further declare and pledge that our actions and deliberations shall be directed to the following ends:

To agree a scheme for the effective government of Wales

To mobilise Welsh opinion and ensure the approval of the Welsh people of that scheme, and

To assert the right of the Welsh people to implement that scheme

The Redwood school of though...

2007-07-11T18:29:00.000Z

It would seem that David Cameron's all new and improved compassionate Tory party hasn't changed that much since the John Redwood Years.

The Conservative spokesperson on Wales in the House of Lords stated...

"As far as the politics of Wales is concerned, as of 48 hours ago I knew absolutely nothing. I now know nothing, plus a bit. I know nothing about the politics but I know quite a lot about the geography, having climbed most of the mountains."

So Wales is once again at the top of the Tories agenda then!?!

A Welsh Republic

2007-07-10T04:44:00.000Z

A lot has been said and written over the last few months about the WA election and its eventual outcome, and it wont be long before we start all over again discussing the possible strategies and outcome of a referendum on a Welsh Parliament. So I thought it was about time that we got back to discussing Welsh Independence - in particular, what form a future Welsh state might take.

I personally believe that we should be aiming to create a Republic but the use of the term Republican often solicits a negative response. To most people the term is simply anti-monarchist, and provokes unionists to start weeping nostalgically about the Royal Family, the loss of the British Empire, and Britishness (whatever that is Mr Brown). To others the term is associated with Irish Republicanism and they immediately start to make comparisons with Sinn Fein and the IRA and other assorted terrorists.

But republican ideals are the basis for many modern democracies, most notably the American & French Republics, and their guiding values are simple:

Republicanism stresses personal liberty, and gives all individuals inalienable rights – rights which can not be voted away. In our context, individuals would have the right to communicate in Welsh – a right that could not be voted away by the majority English speaking electorate

Republicanism establishes that we are not subjects, but citizens. It rejects the monarchy and aristocracy but also all forms of inherited political power, including from the military, churches, trade unions, and lobby groups such as CBI. Instead all political power is democratically vested in the people, who are expected to actively use this power and to participate in civic duties.

Abraham Lincoln defined republicanism in terms of Freedom, Equality & Democracy and described ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people’.

Surely these would be excellent ideals for a new Welsh democracy, and we should not be afraid to promote the cause of a Welsh Republic.

Many people are not aware, but much of the inspiration for the American & French republics actually came from Wales. On his blog, Adam Price has been recently quoting the Italian political thinker Antonio Gramsci – but he should look nearer to home for inspiration, and look up the work of his namesake Richard Price. Born in Llangeinor, Bridgend in the 18th century he was in regular correspondence with Benjamin Franklin and his writings proved to be inspirational in the American and French revolutions, and could be considered to be the father of a Welsh republican ideal.

The French Republic has as its motto

Liberté - Egalité - Fraternitié.

I suggest that we should develop this into a Welsh context and suggest our own motto of:

Rhyddid – Tegwch - Cymuned

I guess we can have our own TRILLIW as well.

Politics or Sport

2007-06-22T08:23:00.000Z

I am a big rugby fan, but have been turned off the game by its politics. On the other hand, the last few weeks have shown that Welsh politics is becoming a sport.

Firstly, the Newport Gwent Dragons are the Liberal Democrats. The smallest of the Welsh teams, and still suffering from an identity crisis.

The Cardiff Blues are obviously the Welsh Conservative party. They both play in Blue and most of their supporters wear ties. Plenty of big business backers, but constantly under achieving.

The Llanelli Scarlets are Welsh Labour - playing in Red, they claim the strongest traditions in Wales, but suffering from a general fall in support, and almost bankrupt.

The Ospreys are Plaid - both have shortened their name and changed their logo as part of a succesful marketing excercise. Their results are still patchy but look the best placed of the Welsh teams to succeed in the longer term.

That brings me to the National teams. The Welsh rugby team is something we can all be proud of. Playing at the highest level, it does not always deliver the best results but it represents Wales on the international stage. On the other hand, most of the players in the Senedd are not up to international standard. They are also only allowed to play 7s and half of the team are forced to play with one hand tied behind their back.

In a few months time it will be time for the rugby world cup - and the favorites are a small country of around 3 million people who are largely outnumbered by sheep. Sound familiar? But that country also has its own government and is able to run its own affairs without interference from its colonial past.

Maybe the next time the Rugby World Cup returns to Wales (2019?) Wales will have its own government and will be the favorites to lift the cup.....

66% or 50% ?

2007-06-20T05:08:00.000Z

The more I think about the referendum, the more I realize that this was only ever placed on the GoW Act to ensure the continued survival of Welsh Labour.

In the same way as the issue of dual candidacy in the regional list seats was nothing more than a cheap trick to gain short term political advantage, the requirement for a referendum to be triggered only after a 66% vote in the assembly is nothing more than blatant political chicanery.
Labour has corrupted one of the most important pieces of Westminster legislation in decades for their personal survival and demonstrates that they simply can not be trusted to operate in the best interests of Wales (as if anyone doubted differently!!).

Plaid should stop sucking up to Labour and tell them straight – if you want to stay in power in Wales (albeit in coalition) then you must amend the GoW Act to:

1) Allow dual candidacy (good enough for Scotland – why not Wales)

2) Remove the requirement for a 66% vote (50% works for Westminster – why not the Senedd)

3) Remove the right of veto by the Secretary of State for Wales, Westminster & House of Lords (this is a matter for the people of Wales to decide)

And if Labour say no?? Then get the Welsh Conservatives to give the same commitment as a pre-condition for the Rainbow Alliance. The 66% vote is the main sticking point but this requirement could be removed by a David Cameron government in Westminster, and Welsh Labour would lose its stranglehold!!!!!!

There are those who suggest that we scrap the requirement for a referendum altogether – I am sympathetic to this view, but I think that it would secure more credibility for the parliament. I also have no doubt that a referendum would be won, providing that we are careful with the timing.

Firstly we must make sure that the referendum does not get mixed up with any possible Scottish independence referendum. There are many in Wales who would accept a full Parliament, but who are not yet ready for independence (Note that I said not yet – they will come around), and they would certainly get confused by the massive media blitz coming out of London.

Secondly we must ensure that the referendum does not become a popularity contest on the government of the day (whether in London or Cardiff). This probably means that it should not be held for the next 6 months, but that it also avoids the next Westminster elections by 6 months either side.

Personally I would time the referendum to coincide with the Euro elections in 2009. Apart from improving the turnout, it should also make voters realize that we live in a multilayered democracy – It is not just Westminster or bust – and that the new Senedd is a more appropriate level for our decision making.

This also gives sufficient time to get the new Parliament established for 2011.

On a purely personal level, I would then consider standing in those elections with the intention of driving the next step forward – an Independent Wales by 2020 - but that is a story for another day...

The Severn Mirage

2007-06-17T05:30:00.000Z

There seems to be a bit of interest in the Severn Barrage at the moment, with our own Governor General claiming it will generate 40,000 new jobs, and Tony Blair making supportive noises. Sounds like excellent news for our struggling economy, and we should throw ourselves at the feet of Peter Hain, but lets not get carried away.

Looking at the positives first, construction activity is one of the best ways to stimulate the economy – it is labour intensive with a high proportion of locally sourced materials, and also has a high ‘multiplier’ effect – for every one direct job created it creates 2 or 3 additional jobs in service industries.

But there is a big difference between small construction projects and mega-projects such as the barrage. On smaller projects, for example local housing developments, the work is typically carried out by local builders, using a network of local available services and subcontractors, and most of the money spent stays within the local economy.

Even on the larger projects, such as the St Davids 2 development in Cardiff which will employ over 1,000, the majority of the workforce will be locally recruited, although many of the support services will be sourced at a UK level.

But this is not the case on mega-projects like the Barrage. The main contract will have to be put to international tender, and is just as likely to be won by an Italian contractor than a British one. The work will then be divided up into a series of subcontracts, which could see the main rock supply contract won by a quarry in Portugal; marine dredging works being done by a Dutch fleet; lockgates fabricated in France, and so on. There will still be a local requirement for labourers, carpenters, steelfixers etc, but mega-projects tend to attract an itinerant workforce, and you are just as likely to hear a Scouse or Geordie accent on site as one from the Valleys.

More realistically, I estimate that the barrage would only generate around 1,000 direct jobs in Wales, with maybe a similar number of indirect jobs – and lasting for only 2 or 3 years. In itself, that is a desirable result, but it is a long way off the 40,000 jobs promised by Peter Hain, but then again, when was the last time you believed anything that this idiot said?

Ps I am a Construction Manager and have worked for the last 20 years on international mega-projects similar to this one.

New Welsh Independence Blog

2007-06-13T21:26:00.000Z

There is a new kid on the Block.

Alan Jones is a Graduate of Coleg y Drindod, Caerfyrddin 1958-1960. He was a teacher of English as a Foreign Language, and taught overseas for 20 years in five different countries. In 2007 he rejoined Plaid Cymru and campaigned for Helen Mary Jones in Llanelli, working for Cymru and full independence. He is a Poet, philosopher, a Democratic radical pluralist and advocate of national unity and solidarity.

www.alanindyfed.blogspot.com

Pob Lwc gyda'r Blog Alan.

Friday's Thomas Cook Protest

2007-06-13T19:56:00.000Z

Thomas Cook has banned its staff from discussing work related matters in Welsh. Their policy has been attacked by all the main political parties, as well as the Commission for Racial Equality, but the policy persists. The only slight change they have made, is that they will not punish any staff who speak Welsh, but they still ask them to speak in English only!

Cymdeithas yr Iaith (The Welsh Language Society) have declared themselves not impressed with the latest climb-down by Thomas Cook, and have vowed to continue with plans for a demo outside the Travel Company's Bangor shop at 1pm on Friday 15/06/07.

SUPPORT THE DEMO IF YOU CAN!

From JFK to IWJ.....

2007-06-10T09:49:00.000Z

To those in Plaid worrying about the implications about joining the Rainbow, or a Red-Green coalition, a small quotation:

"There are risks and costs to a program of action, but they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction."

John F.Kennedy

5/10 - Must Do Better

2007-06-05T09:57:00.000Z

Today is a historic day – another milestone along our slow but steady path towards independence. But like our journey of devolution, we must also remember that Wales did not lose her independence overnight.

This was also a long drawn-out process - a progressive loss, which started with the Anglo-Norman invasions, was first formalized by the Statute of Rhuddlan in 1282, was driven home in the Acts of Union of 1536 and 1542, and was finally settled by the Wales & Berwick Act of 1747 which said that from now on any legal reference to England would automatically include Wales.

But no matter what the Kings and politicians said, Wales never went away, and we have slowly but surely been clawing our way back ever since. The first significant step towards independence was in 1920 with the Disestablishment of the Church in Wales. In today’s society this seems largely irrelevant, but in the early 20th century this was a huge step – an official recognition that Wales was never fully incorporated into England.

Small steps in the 1950s saw the English Monarchy recognize the Welsh flag, and Cardiff was proclaimed to be our Capital City, and in the 1960’s the UK government created the Welsh Office headed by the Secretary of State for Wales as our very own (undemocratic) government and (appointed) leader.

The next major step forward was quietly buried in the Welsh Language Act of 1967, which repealed the Wales & Berwick Act. It was now official - England did not include Wales.

Some more small steps forward (and backwards) followed, until the establishment of the first Welsh Assembly in 1999. Although its powers were limited, it was a huge symbolic statement, and has since grown in stature and importance.

Today’s revamped Assembly powers - although still severely restricted and subject to English veto – is another step forward in the right direction.

But if you try and measure independence on a linear scale from 0 (full annexation) to 10 (full independence) we have just moved forward from maybe 4 to 5. This is simply not good enough, and we have to keep pushing to achieve further powers and a full parliament. Measured on the same basis, Scotland have already achieved a score of 7 and we must catch them before they move even further ahead.

Mrs Windsor......

2007-06-03T09:45:00.000Z

I think that Leanne & Bethan are wrong to boycott the opening of the Welsh Assembly because they have a problem with it being opened by the Queen.

As republicans, they clearly resent the involvement of an old woman of German & Greek descent who has inherited her position by an accident of birth, but at the end of the day this is our Assembly – our Parliament in waiting – and they should be proud of the fact that we at least have an Assembly to open.

What the two ladies should be protesting about is the fact that this assembly still has painfully few real powers, and that any democratically agreed new laws can simply be vetoed by ‘our’ governor general in Westminster. They should protest the fact that OUR assembly is being opened by a visiting head of state and not by one of our own, and that the Union Jack will fly above the Red Dragon for the day to remind us of our inferior status.

The only way to avoid this forelock-tugging is to achieve Welsh Independence, and I urge the pair to openly campaign for this cause.

In the meantime, if they don’t like her title, then why don’t they just address her as

‘Mrs Windsor, or can I call you Liz….’

Or maybe Guten Tag Kyria.....

Deal.....

2007-05-27T10:42:00.000Z

It has been an interesting few weeks, but are we any closer to achieving an Independent Wales?

While I am disappointed at not having a Nationalist First Minister, I am more disappointed at the failure to achieve a Labour-Plaid deal which would have delivered a referendum on a full Parliament. This is a vital stepping stone towards independence and must be secured in time for the 2011 elections.

But with the LDs finally making their minds up and coming out in favour of supporting the Rainbow, things could still work out quite nicely. I am not suggesting that Plaid need to join the Rainbow, but should instead go back to Rhodri and demand the referendum (and new language act) as the price for their support. Plaid can ensure that Rhodri keeps Labour’s unionist dinosaurs in their cages by the hanging threat of a No-Confidence vote at any time

Plaid are in a very strong position, but as in poker, every hand’s a potential winner, every hand’s a potential loser. We still have the same cards as we had 3 weeks ago but they can still be played a few different ways.

But the rules of the game will change quickly, and there is only a relatively narrow window to do this – the LDs can and will change their minds again, and jump back in with Labour – and the Tories will step back out when it suits them as well.

Labour need to be squeezed now for maximum gain.

We want a Wales Olympic team by 2012

2007-05-21T21:45:00.000Z

Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, has expanded his vision for an independent Scotland by backing the creation of a Scottish Olympic team.

Salmond knows that you have to take the initiative to split Labour. This is what Plaid needs to be doing. The politics of the next years are the politics of identity. Plaid needs to be develop a radical nationalist agenda to inspire people and give Plaid a unique selling point.

We want a Wales Olympic team by 2012.

Bring it on........

2007-05-16T18:23:00.001Z

The more I think about it, the more I realize that this assembly election will prove to be pivotal in our fight for independence. If Labour had managed to achieve a majority then we could forget independence for maybe 20 years, by which time, due to English immigration, we might never achieve it.

On the other hand, a Plaid majority today might also have put the cause back years, as our poor calibre candidates (with a few obvious exceptions) would probably have made a mess of power, and would be punished accordingly in the next polls – look at Merthyr & RCT councils if you want any historical examples – and we are back 20 years again.

But the current result should prove an excellent springboard for the 2011 elections, - the Plaid contingent are large enough to wield real power and demonstrate their capability – while at the same time knowing that they will have to work hard to achive any success, and confine themselves to realistic policies.

As I write this I do not know how the power negotiations with Labour will work out. As I see it, the LDS could be bought off with the promise of STV voting in local councils, but I do not see Labour agreeing to that (even if LDs could agree with themselves). Labour could not deal with the Conservatives, as it would destroy any credibility they have left, which brings us back to Plaid.

Plaid could be offered a formal coalition with Labour (over the dead bodies of Huw Lewis, Leighton Andrew & others) but I think it unlikely. Plaid will more likely be offered a non-coalition deal, which would actually be better for them in the long term as it would be non-tainted. I am certain that Plaid will insist on a new Welsh Language Act & a referendum on a Scottish style parliament as the price for their support, and if Labour agree it will be a good result, and Plaid can concentrate on achieving real power in 2011, with independence by 2020.

But I don’t think that certain ostrich-like Labour egos will permit this, and will refuse to compromise with anyone. At this point there are two options. First is to let Plaid form a Rainbow coalition, but the clever option would be to let Rhodri get elected as First Minister, and then to use the combined opposition votes to ridicule and frustrate Labour ambitions, and to then bring him (or one of his potential successors) down a few months later, with the same result – a Rainbow coalition led by Plaid.

Labour strategists have considered this and realize that they can play on the fear of the Tory bogeyman running our schools and hospitals. They also realize that with the multicoloured team in Cabinet, they can dominate the committees and frustrate the WAG at every turn. But this can be easily countered – firstly the Cabinet must be limited to only say 6 ministers covering the major portfolios. The other portfolios must be dealt with as non-cabinet positions, which would allow more non-Labour people in the committees. And with only 6 cabinet ministers, Plaid would then only need to agree to 1 Conservative Minister – and give him/her a non-sensitive position, such as agriculture. Most farmers vote Tory anyway.

The result should be that in 4 years Plaid will become the largest party in a new expanded Parliament. That is by no means guaranteed, but I feel far more positively about our chances of achieving independence by 2020 or earlier.

Workers’ parties and the national question in Wales

2007-05-10T22:35:00.000Z

I came across this very interesting post by Charlie Marks on the Rebellion Sucks! blog. It is well worth a read.

An assessment of workers’ parties and the national question in Wales

What got me started on the subject of Welsh politics was an enchanting little post to the Welsh Independence blog, What sort of independence?. It was written by “hafod”, who aspires towards an independent Wales based on “cooperation not the free market, care not warfare and putting people before profit.” As for ownership and control in the economy, hafod is straightforward: “the wealth of the country is in the hands of […] the workers [and] democracy means more than putting a cross in a box every four years […] In the same way as I have faith in the people of Wales to have the ability to run their own country, I’m also confident that the workers of Wales can run our industries and services.”

How it Plaid out in Wales
Despite expectations, the Labour Party was not disastrously defeated in the Welsh Assembly elections. This may be attributable to the ‘freebies’, such as free prescriptions, that Welsh Labour are introducing, thus going against the New Labour grain. It may well have been that the low approval of Labour registered in opinion polls did not result in an embarrassing defeat because many traditional Labour voters no longer participate in elections.

Rhodri Morgan, the leader of Welsh Labour, had said there would be ‘clear red water’ between the party and its rivals, hence the criticism that the party’s losses were due to ‘the slow pace of [neo-liberal] reform’. The difference between Welsh Labour and New Labour may have been big enough to lessen the impact of the latter’s imperialist wars, corruption, and habitual dishonesty.

One cannot imagine Blair or Brown holding a meeting of Labour MPs to decide what to do next after the loss of a majority position, as Morgan did with his party’s Assembly Members. Neither Blair nor Brown would talk of having a mandate from their peers to proceed with negotiations, such is their leadership style – centralist rather than democratic – there would be no pretence at accountability.

Morgan has acknowledged that the party requires a coalition, or at least a deal, and that it would not be right to carry on as before. This may be merely an affectation on his part, but it is more graceful than the words and deeds of Jack McConnell, the deposed First Minister for Labour in the Scottish Parliament, who is waiting for the SNP to fail to secure coalition partners so that he can do a deal with the Liberals to prop up Labour. But then, I’m sure Morgan would have acted just like McConnell if Plaid had one more AM than Labour.

Coalition not dole
Though Tories fared better than before, it was not through stealing votes from Labour. It was a party to the left of Labour, Plaid Cymru, which came second. Plaid now has a quarter of the seats in the Assembly: 15 out of 30. Labour needed 31 seats to retain a majority, but they now have 26 seats, meaning they will have to deal with either Plaid or the Liberals, who have 6 seats, but certainly not with the Tories, who have 12 seats. There is a single independent Labour member, Trish Law, who may remain independent from the coalition-building process.

A rainbow coalition of Plaid, the Tories and the Liberals is possible, but it would be unstable and rather embarrassing for all concerned. The Liberals would not want to be seen sharing power with the Tories, and the feeling is probably mutual, as the two are rivals for power in many council and parliamentary seats in England. And it would be unwise, from an electoral perspective, for Plaid Cymru to get cosy under the covers with the Tories (like the Scottish nationalists, Plaid is not a racist or right-wing party).

What will happen, then? In all likelihood there will be a deal struck between Labour with the Liberals and/or Plaid if not an actual coalition. A non-aggression pact would allow the stable government that Labour desire, but would create problems for both Plaid and the Liberals.

Don’t shoot, we’re only bourgeois nationalists
It is obligatory for me to lurch into a rant about these petty-bourgeois nationalists at this point. But I will not oblige. However iffy their socialist credentials, Plaid wish to dissolve the Union; they are opposed to imperialist wars in the Middle East and have plotted with the SNP in the Westminster parliament to impeachment Tony Blair. All of this might suggest that they represent a nascent national bourgeoisie in Wales which wishes to break away from Britain because it sees no profit from protracted wars in a junior partnership with an unreliable and unhinged superpower. Indeed, Plaid, like the SNP, is oriented towards the EU and away from NATO.

Plaid Cymru are Welsh nationalists, but their election campaign was not focused on the question of independence to the same degree as the SNP in Scotland. Nor was “decentralist socialism” mentioned in Plaid’s campaign literature, though supposedly their vision is of an independent and socialist Wales.

I have had trouble unearthing anything detailed on Plaid’s professed socialism; there is no satisfactory definition of the term on their website. The absence of a class perspective has, in the past, led me to believe they are social democrats in reality and therefore have no revolutionary potential (nor potential in a revolution).

Could Plaid be disguising their proletarian partisanship at this time, hiding their wholeheartedness to the workers until the national democratic revolution is in full swing? Would Ieuan Wyn Jones take to wearing a red berret and quoting Trotsky if Plaid were dominant in an independent Wales?

Post-colonial Welsh nationalism
Plaid Cymru have taken advantage of Welsh devolution to argue for self-determination, but as talk of independence has been delayed, so too “community socialism”. Generally, the “S” word has been unofficially banned from polite conversation – it is of the past, not the future. Where the “S” word was tolerated, it denoted a form of welfare capitalism that did not trouble the bourgeoisie nor threaten to expropriate it, and was actually supportive of imperialism. Plaid’s stressing decentralisation could be a nod to the ruling class that since the commanding heights of the economy are not in their sights they can be trusted to govern without upsetting any apple carts or felling trees in the orchard. Is community socialism now just the wink that says an independent Wales will be open for business?

I have no trouble believing that Plaid is a nationalist party, but socialist? Prominent members come across as radical nationalists more than anything else; socialism implies an alternative to capitalism. By advocating national independence for Wales, Plaid signals that it is seeking an alternative political arrangement, namely Welsh self-government. In cultural terms, Plaid aims to revive the Welsh language and affirm a positive national identity.

Could it be that Plaid Cymru is also seeking an alternative economic arrangement, a Socialist Republic, a workers’ state in which there is common ownership of means of production under democratic control? What does socialism with Welsh characteristics look like?

Don’t ask, don’t tell
The questions that revolutionary socialists should use to interrogate Plaid’s vision of socialism are: who will own the means of production and on what basis will goods and services be allocated?

Naturally, these inquires will be dismissed as premature until Wales has independence, by which time another excuse will have been found. They are relevant questions, though. Plaid’s leadership would prefer that its politics remain moderate, which is to say within the realm of bourgeois respectability; a vanguard of the nation rather than the proletariat.

But let us imagine that Wales has gained independence and there is a militant labour movement and strengthened class consciousness. Would Plaid be with this movement, on the fence, or actively against it? One can be a democrat and disagree with the results of democracy. Would Plaid be Welsh nationalists opposing the majority Welsh opinion?

Throw another party?
Ah, too many questions, too little time. Here is an important one: what should be done by revolutionary socialists in terms of organisation? In Wales, the options are: enter Welsh Labour and agitate for change, build up either Respect or the Socialist Party of Wales, or join Plaid Cymru and agitate for change.

If Welsh Labour and Labour in Westminster continue on the same path, there will be further erosion of their working class base. And the fact that there will be no massive change in Labour policy leaves an opening for another party to fill their boots, “left-leaning” in the case of Plaid, or fully leftist. Recall that the disaffiliated unions have contributed financially to the Scottish Socialist Party in the past, would a Welsh version get union cash and have the same success? Wait, don’t answer that one.

The recent creation of the Campaign for a New Workers’ Party by the Socialist Party of England and Wales and the electoral intervention by the Socialist Party of Wales, which is part of the SPEW, confirms that the organisation formerly known as Militant has given up entrism for good. A habit worth kicking is one that is damaging. And the other sizable (larger, that is) Trotskyist outfit, the Socialist Worker Party is keen to build up respect in Wales… by building up Respect in Wales. Ahem.

But seriously, it is inefficient to have two or three left reformist parties populated by revolutionary socialists. Why not make do with one? Again, a bad example nowadays, but the SSP saw the various far left parties work in a single organisation and the failure of the project was not caused by these groups being unable to work together. (I accept that the Sheridan trial was viewed as political by both sides in the SSP, but contend the split resulted because of personal differences.)

I do not think it wise for socialists to join Plaid Cymru for it is primarily committed to national self-determination and would serve the interests of the capitalist class more than the working class.

A Welsh Socialist Party should be formed by the SWP, the SP, and others, following the template of the Socialist Alliance and the Scottish Socialist Party. This would be a workers’ party with a workers’ programme – supportive of Welsh self-determination and dealing with Plaid, but committed to the class struggle at home and in solidarity with struggles internationally.

Don’t let it dragon
I suspect that in future Plaid may experience a win like that of the SNP – gaining support for a change, but not independence. The neo-liberal nature of the Welsh nationalists would become more apparent in these circumstances. A minority may well be full-blooded socialists, but the direction of Plaid will follow the route of the SNP: talk of social reforms to gain workers’ votes, but at the same time promise stability, continuity and cuts in tax and red-tape for bosses at home and abroad.

Plaid wants lower business rates, and it might be argued that low taxation is the only way for a country without natural resources to guarantee investment. But as there is no alternate form of ownership articulated by Plaid in which investment and disinvestment can be decided democratically, one is given to believe that the colonial relationship will remain, but on better terms and with a leftish and nationalist gloss.

It remains to be seen what will come of the SNP’s promises and whatever happens it will not totally determine the future of Welsh nationalism. But if the SNP fail to implement the progressive elements of their programme for reasons other than being a minority government, it will impact negatively on Plaid. Conversely, if the SNP succeed and win an independence referendum, it will buoy the case for self-determination in Wales. Either way, the national capitalist support for the Union will continue to fade as the imperialist wars rage.

There needs to be an independent working class party in Wales. And that’s one party in total, by the way. There will and should be differences of opinion, but there is no need for disorganisation. My fear is that the electoral division of the left in the UK, wrought by the two largest far left groups, will continue to impede the progress of the working class movement.

Unity is not a luxury and should not be treated as such, it is a necessity. Two parties don’t produce twice as much growth or double strength. There should be coalition talks between the revolutionary socialist parties! If not physically, then at least here, in the Blogosphere. What do you say?

Read a bit more about various Socialist Parties in Wales by clicking on the links below:

Plagues of Locusts & Rivers of blood

2007-05-08T21:51:00.000Z

This is a quote from an article written by Kenny Farquharson that appeared in the Scotsman following the excellent victory by the SNP in Scotland last week.

It shows that negative campaigning and scaremongering are tactics used by New Labour in Scotland as well as in Wales! I'm glad to see that the people of Scotland were not fooled by Labour's lies on nationalism and independence.

"LABOUR was wrong. Walking into work the morning after the SNP victory I didn't see one single horseman of the apocalypse. Neither were there any plagues of locusts or rivers of blood or convoys of cars with suitcases strapped to the roof accelerating towards the English Border. It was a perfectly normal Saturday morning. A discarded kebab. A few hangovers. A very Scottish revolution".

A New Voice

2007-05-06T06:24:00.000Z

Now that the election is behind us, I have been thinking about its impact on the cause of Welsh Independence. In order to achieve this goal, it is essential for Nationalist parties to get more seats than Unionist parties, and that just didn’t happen.

The problem is that we only have one Nationalist party, and while Plaid have done extremely well in Y Fro Gymraeg, they have not made much impact outside of their heartland. Plaid have a good base in the Valleys but even with a very unpopular Labour Party, they just can not seem to deliver. Just imagine what we would be talking about today if Plaid had secured another 5 or 6 seats…………

Politics is largely about momentum – the Liberal Democrats have often been very effective in starting a bandwagon in by-elections which swings floating voters behind them until they become unstoppable. Today, the Welsh Conservatives have some momentum, but no one is seriously suggesting that they can win anything in the Valleys, and they are in any case Unionists. Ron Davies’s group of independents almost got moving, but suffered from a lack of organization, but did again demonstrate that there is a large potential anti-Labour vote in the South, which just needs to be mobilized.

There are maybe two ways forward:

One is to establish a new Nationalist party – left of centre, and primarily English (or Wenglish) speaking, targeting the Valley seats, and supporting Plaid in a nationalist coalition. But the problem with this (apart from the costs and timescale) is that it would just split the existing Plaid base, and let the Unionists attack Plaid as not being representative of all Wales.

The alternative is to keep Plaid as the main Nationalist party, but to adopt a bit of niche marketing (or devolution). Create a new grouping – say Valleys Voice – with a visible local leader (why not Ron Davies??!!). The group would still be part of Plaid, and use the new logo, but could adopt local policies more suited to local problems. It would give Plaid a new momentum locally which was largely absent in these elections, and could make a big difference in the 9 Valley seats. Maybe a Clwyd Voice could help deliver 3 more seats and a West Glamorgan Voice 3 more. You get the idea.

Four years to the next election seems like a long time, but there are local councils to be won and Westminster seats to be fought before then, and Plaid have to strengthen their base before taking the next leap forward.

But I do not want to see Plaid elected for the sake of it – I want them elected to lead our drive for independence. I believe that Plaid can win 25 seats or more in the next Senedd, and win a vote on Independence by 2020 – providing that they start working towards it now!!

Adam Price calls for an independent England

2007-04-28T00:30:00.001Z

Our Welsh Identity

2007-04-24T06:17:00.000Z

Over the years, successive UK governments have tried to defuse Welsh identity by creating cross-border institutions such as Manweb, TWW etc. The private sector has also done the same thing – I used to work for a Company with their Welsh ‘regional’ office in Bridgend. Then Wales was reorganized as part of their South West and North West regions, and as well as losing 20 jobs, a little bit of Wales disappeared. I am also a member of a professional organization which has a South Wales region, but in which North Wales is considered part of Merseyside although that would explain the accent…;0)

I suggest that one of the new laws that our incoming AMs could consider, is a ‘Respect of National Boundary’ act. Make it a requirement that any organization employing more than say 50 staff in Wales, or having a membership of more than say 100, is obliged to structure itself on a Wales (or regional within Wales) basis. Accounts and economic data should be published on a Wales-only basis, and we might find out a bit more about our economy. In practical terms this would involve companies doing little more than adding a few lines to their Excel spreadsheets. I am not suggesting that companies must open a dedicated Welsh office, but they might find it beneficial to do so, and it would certainly help protect those that are already here.

In the future Wales may have a different tax regime to England, and by establishing the necessary structures now, it will ease the pain of transition in the future.

No more combining Cardiff with Bristol, Wrexham with Chester, or Aberystwyth with Shrewsbury.
We must respect, enforce and celebrate our Welsh identity.

Leanne Wood calls for an Independent Parliament for Wales

2007-04-21T16:08:00.000Z

Great to see Leanne Wood's comments regarding independence on the Blamerbell Briefs blog.

Leanne is Plaid Cymru's Assembly member for South Wales Central.

QUESTION: Please explain, in detail, how Plaid Cymru would fund, in an Independent Wales, all the current services provided by the Welsh Assembly Government at current and projected spending levels PLUS the welfare state, pensions, defence, policing and security, foreign affairs, international trade relations, Broadcasting in general, and all other reserved matters.

ANSWER: Via taxation, the way all countries do. Six member states of the European Union are smaller than Wales. Eight of the ten richest countries in the world have a population of less than 10 million, including all 5 Nordic countries. An independent Wales could clearly pay its own way. I believe the people of Wales are no less talented than the people of Ireland and that we could successfully run our own affairs. An independent Wales would have the option of reducing the defence budget, re-prioritising public services.

QUESTION: How would you like to see the assembly develop in the future?

ANSWER: I would like it to become an independent parliament.

A Nuclear Wales

2007-04-16T09:21:00.000Z

It has been widely reported that because of concerns about Scottish independence the Ministry of Defence is considering relocating the Trident submarine fleet and their lovely nuclear missiles away from Faslane, Scotland.

What has not been reported so widely is that there are four possible alternative sites under consideration - including one in Wales!

Presumably this is in Milford Haven - can you imagine the consequences of a nuclear tipped submarine bumping into one of those huge LNG tankers ?????

This is another compelling reason to campaign for Welsh independence - before we are blown off the map altogether!!!!!!

My Favourite Blog

2007-04-12T00:10:00.000Z

Blamerbell suggested a short time ago that one can make a league table of Welsh blogs by counting the number of links and comments that a blog receives. If this is the case my favourite blog isn't in the top 10 of Welsh blogs, but it deserves to be.

Wales World Nation should be compulsive reading for anybody interested in Welsh affairs.

I don't know who writes it, but who ever it is deserves a medal for services to Wales.

Unlike most political type blogs Wales World Nation isn't full of political backstabbing; all posts follow a simple formula: "this is what a small successful independent nation has done" and then a short comment along the lines of "Wales could do that too, if only it had the freedom to do so."

If Wales World Nation isn't in your links and feeds yet put it there. You won't be disappointed.

Affordable freedom + Attractive tax rates

2007-04-10T12:11:00.000Z

Two more excellent letters in the Western Mail today:

Affordable freedom

SIR - In his attack on Plaid AM Dai Lloyd, Martyn Williams (Letters, April 3) questions how a future Plaid government would "squeeze £11bn [the size of the Assembly's current block grant from Westminster] out of a Welsh population of three million people".

Using the writer's own figures, there are almost two million Welsh residents of working age, ie actual or potential income-taxpayers, and £11bn divided by two million is £5,500. A lot of money? Well, divide into twelve monthly instalments and you now have around £460 per month. Readers might like to check their latest payslips for tax deductions. You could earn around £30,000 gross a year and pay this in income tax. Many of us in steady employment would be fairly pleased to find that we could get decent public services in Wales at this level of direct tax contribution. Then, of course, we have NI, VAT and the numerous other duties on consumables.

I'm very grateful to Mr Williams for reminding me how affordable independence actually could be, and for making me ask yet again: "What on earth is Westminster doing with all our money?"

Ian Hughes
Morganstown, Cardiff

Attractive tax rates

AS Merfyn Thomas says in his letter (April 7) Wales would be a self-supporting country if independent.

He makes many valid points but may I add another very important point. Currently companies operating in Wales pay corporation tax to the London Exchequer. When Wales is independent they will pay this tax to a Welsh Exchequer, and if this independent Wales cut corporation taxes, as small, quicker, acting-on-their-feet countries do, these companies would expand here whenever they could plus more new companies would be encouraged to relocate here.

Lower ongoing tax rates, plus attractive capital tax allowances attract business more than one-off grants, ask any genuine business person. Plus, of course, our extremely important indigenous businesses would benefit and they are often the backbone of rural economies. Locally, where I live, we have two major oil refineries. Does Wales benefit from their profitable business? The answer is a huge no as far as corporation tax is concerned. Soon there will be major LNG developments here also. Again will Wales receive corporation tax benefits? No, they will flow to London.

And might I leave readers with a final thought.

How does the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands manage without the support of the London government? The answer, although they are smaller than Wales, is very nicely thank you.

CONRAD BRYANT
Neyland, Pembrokeshire

Wales Green Party - Pro independence?

2007-04-07T15:52:00.000Z

From Sanddef Rhyferys' Blog, original story from our Welsh language sister blog:

In a reply to my facebook pal Hedd Gwynfor, Plaid Werdd - the Green Party, have affirmed that they support Welsh Independence, making them a nationalist alternative to Plaid Cymru.

Sounds good, but in reality the Greens have still some way to go. For a start, they don't seem to have realised that the assembly has moved to the new Senedd building; and secondly they have to learn that making a website bilingual doesn't mean just translating the titles and links into Welsh -the content has to be bilingual as well.

But I don't think Plaid Cymru will be losing any sleep. Now, if there was a centre right Welsh nationalist party, then that might tempt some voters away (both from Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Tories), but such is not the case. And the Greens -whether we are talking about the Welsh Greens or the UK Greens- have a long, long, long way to go before they can even hope to approach the political quality of the German Greens, or produce a statesman of the same calliber as former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer.

The thoughts of Alan ap Sion

2007-04-01T19:33:00.000Z

I recently received an email from Alan ap Sion, who had just returned to Wales after nearly 50 years, in which he raised some very interesting points. I asked him if he wanted to contribute to this blog. Here are his thoughts:

Since my recent return to Wales after a period of 46 years I have observed many changes, some for the good, others for the bad. What brought me back, after so many years? - Call it "hiraeth". It was a decision that was made for me, not one that I consciously made.

I am living actually in front of the school where I did my teaching practice, in Porth Tywyn. I even taught Welsh there at the time, but then I travelled the world; living and working in nine countries and rapidly lost my Welsh. Now I have to brush up on it and it is returning little by little. I need to make friends and meet Welsh speakers so that I can fully integrate.

Last week I visited the Plaid Cymru office in Llanelli and met Dyfrig, then rejoined the party. I was sorry to note, however, that the three mountains are no longer the logo, as I thought it was a good one.

I have many ideas for Wales, and they do very much tie in with Plaid's policies. I think the first priority is to absolutely emphasise as the main consideration "power to the people", as the individual is aware of being manipulated by commercial and monetary matters, whether from councils or big corporations and utility companies. Labour, which used to be a unifying force, has lost a lot of its appeal, particularly in the valleys of South Wales. This should be evident in the forthcoming elections.

That is where the effort has to be exerted. Government is always trumpeting and proclaiming democracy and its virtues, but actually there is little true democracy in the so-called democratic states. I see Plaid as the only democratic movement in Wales. Britain and America are even proudly attempting to impose democracy on other nations, such as Iraq. Obviously this is not working. No wonder they are alienating people who see their own development and raison d'etre to be increasingly threatened from without.

As Gwynfor did, I see Wales as a Celtic nation among the community of nations, yet it must work on removing the remaining elements of Anglicisation and dependence upon its larger neighbour. It needs to nourish its roots and rich heritage without antagonising those who have made Wales their chosen home. This is also the dilemma of the Baltic States, for so long dominated by the Soviet Union. At least now Wales has its boundaries. The Kurds and the Lapps have none.

The next concern is communication, establishing the infrastructure to link the north with the south, without having to cross the border to travel from one place to the other. Then, the institutions such as the National Health Service, the Police, and all services should be separated from Whitehall, and controlled from Cardiff. Ireland is the example to follow, as that country has achieved remarkable success, nationally and economically and is known and widely respected across the world.

Schools should not be segregated into English schools and Welsh schools, in my opinion. They should be truly bilingual schools, and Welsh given prominence, as the national language. There needs to be a unifying and cohesive movement across Wales, which will bring the nation together and maintain its independent structure.

Finally, I must mention the subject of place names. There is no reason why towns and cities in Wales should be portrayed with two names. Other countries do not practice this. First of all, the people are the Cymry and the country is Cymru. Its language, one of the oldest in Europe, is Cymraeg. Cardigan is Aberteifi, Carmarthen is Caerfyrddin, Kidwelly is Cydweli and so on. As things stand these alternative names are a relic of colonisation.

I see Cymru as being on the threshold of its great future as a nation among nations. Our forefathers succeeded in turning back the tide, at the time of the country's slide towards oblivion. "Wythnos yng Nghymru Fydd", the book by Islwyn Ffowc Elis, depicted the state of the nation four or five decades ago. Much progress has been achieved but so much more needs to be done before the spirits of Arthur and Glyndwr return to inspire the nation to accept its rightful destiny.

5. How Many Aircraft Carriers? - Sion Jobbins

2007-03-31T12:28:00.000Z

In an article in the current issue of the Cambria magazine, Sion Jobbins tries to answer David Williams' question put to Plaid Cymru Candidate Bethan Jenkins on BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye program "how many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have". We are grateful to Cambria and to Sion Jobbins for allowing us to reproduce this slightly extended article.

The article has been broken into 5 segments. This is the 5th and last instalment. The first may be viewed here, the 2nd may be viewed here, the 3rd here, and the 4th here.

HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS?
by Siôn Jobbins

PART 5 - CONCLUSIONS

And what of David Williams’s aircraft carrier conundrum? Well, again it depends how a particular government prioritises its spending but let’s put it like this. The cost of an air-craft carrier is expensive – the Chinese are commissioning one for $362m which would be about half the Welsh Military’s annual budget but the US Navy’s Nimitz class carrier costs a staggering $4.5 billion. There are only 10 states world-wide which possess air-craft carriers and so to answer David Williams’s question, no, it’s not likely Wales would have an aircraft carrier

So, to conclude. The more one looks at the facts rather than the clichés and prejudices, the idea of a Welsh independent military force is not only possible, it’s actually the most sensible and a cost effective option.

Look, four things to keep in mind.

Wales could have a viable defence force, in line with other forces either of neutral states or NATO members for a smaller percentage of our GNP than our contribution to the UK force.

Furthermore, without the UK’s illusions of grandeur and supposedly ‘special relationship’ a Welsh force would not be involved in so many military conflicts that are both expensive in terms of cost and lives. A Welsh defence ministry could opt-out of the expensive contribution towards the re-commissioning of nuclear Trident sub machines or may wish to pool its military contribution and capability – on its own terms.

An independent Welsh force would not be starting from scratch either. Not only would it build on centuries of Welsh military knowledge and pride but under the Vienna Convention on Successor States 1983, Wales, as a successor state to the UK following independence, would be entitled to its corresponding percentage of moveable assets (tanks, aeroplanes, ammunition) and immovable assets (military bases etc).

That means, as Welsh taxpayers have contributed to the UK’s military expenditure then some 4% of those military assets would come under Welsh control. For instance, the Royal Navy in 2007 consists of 88 vessels (including 1 air craft carrier in reserve). The independence settlement may mean that Wales would get 3 or 4 vessels … or even, horse-bargain and go for the Royal Navy’s aircraft carrier to answer David William’s question. The same principle would apply to the air service and army.

Another more elusive, but not less important point is that of Welsh prestige. For the first time since the days of Glyndŵr and the Age of the Princes in the 12th and 13th century, an ambitious soldier could climb to the top of the armed service within Wales becoming Chief of Defence Staff without leaving his homeland or having a conflict of loyalty. This would be a badge of a ‘proper country’ – a country that can offer its citizens the broadest possible careers within her borders, culture and principles.

Welsh identity would not be confined to one ‘accepted’ notion of Welshness but would encompass all aspects of Welsh expression and ambition. For the first time in centuries, Welsh men and women of all ethnic and racial backgrounds would fight Welsh wars on Welsh terms as Welshmen under a Welsh Chief of Defence Staff. There’s the incalculable moral and psychological effect of seeing Wales and Welshness not as badges of a weak, defeated nation, but as a nation with arms, a nation, which, if need be, could defend itself – a nation which would deserve to have the Red Dragon as its symbol.

Were the Welsh language to be employed as a practical part to the force (as a some-time medium of instruction lets say), the effect would be as astounding. For a language unaccustomed to such a setting it would be as liberating for the language as for the Shettle Jews seeing a Jew on horseback. The language of sedate eisteddfodau, worthies and good little children would have a muscular strength that it has largely lost with the demise of the heavy industry Welsh-speaking working class. The whole effect of an independent Welsh force would put Welsh political and cultural identity in a field it has never been. No more a nation chasing hand-outs but a nation of diplomacy; no more the ‘ci rhech’ (lap-dog) yearning for recognition but a moral nation ready to make moral commitments.

Plaid therefore needs to decide if it is really a pacifist party or not and if so put it to a vote at its conference. If it is not a pacifist party it needs to discuss the implications of independence on the military so that its own candidates don’t go into firing line of the forthcoming election or the next with no intellectual defence. Having you own military capability does not make a nation a war-mongering state it means that a state can chose which wars it wishes to fight - and which ones it doesn’t. Without its own military answerable to Welsh priorities, Harry Webb’s words will always ring true:

"Taffy was a Welshman, Taffy was a clown
Taffy fought for every land except his bloody own"

4. How Many Aircraft Carriers? - Sion Jobbins

2007-03-29T22:47:00.000Z

In an article in the current issue of the Cambria magazine, Sion Jobbins tries to answer David Williams' question put to Plaid Cymru Candidate Bethan Jenkins on BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye program "how many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have". We are grateful to Cambria and to Sion Jobbins for allowing us to reproduce this slightly extended article.

The article has been broken into 5 segments. This is the 4th instalment. The first may be viewed here, the 2nd may be viewed here, and the 3rd may be viewed here.

HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS?
by Siôn Jobbins

PART 4 – NATO MEMBERSHIP?

And on to our last question. Would an independent Wales be a member of NATO? Again, this assumes there will still be a NATO when Wales achieves independence. Let’s assume there is, then there are three options open to any state, they are the three N's – Neutrality, Non-alignment and NATO.

Neutrality seems to have been the favourite option of Plaid rank and file. That’s not surprising as the party was formed in 1925 partly as a reaction to the pointless horror of the Great War and a strong desire that Wales would let ‘English men fight English wars’. But there are problems with neutrality. It can sound high-minded and moral but that depends on if you believe that a conflict with a bully can be overcome with a candle-lit vigil followed by a poetry recital and question and answer session on Waldo Williams’s iconic Mewn Dau Cae. It’s all very well being moral and neutral if your conscience, like the Swedes and Irish, can allow you to believe the sons of other nations should defend you from Nazis.

But there’s not much point being neutral when you’re in a minority of one. Now, I could be fighting the ‘last war’ and that a land war in Europe is unlikely and the need for traditional infantry divisions is un-needed, but that doesn’t diminish the need for a military capability. Unfortunately, Plaid’s pseudo-neutrality is more often than not seen as a cheap and Pavlovian piece of positioning against the prevailing London government. Hiding behind, or transferring foreign policy to the United Nations by default is not always the most sensible, realistic nor appropriate decision either. What would be the point of independence if an independent Wales won’t follow its own foreign and military policy? We’ll hardly be better off, and could be worse off, than having our military policy dictated by London.

Non-alignment is also popular in Plaid, again for obvious reasons. But non-alignment proved to be a Star Wars bar of oddballs; a carnival of dictators and dreamers as ineffective as it was diverse. The European Union may develop into a military alliance, but that seems unlikely as it would undermine NATO. The EU was worse than ineffective during the Bosnian war and who would trust an alliance with France and its ego as a leading player?

The last option is NATO. This would be my preferred option. Not because it’s perfect but because it has strength – which is the whole point of an alliance. Who knows how Putin’s Russia will develop – when I visited there in 2005, I didn't find a single Russian that did not believe that there would be a dictatorship in five years time. It’s all very well attacking the USA, but I’d prefer Uncle Sam, even under George Bush, than Russia under Putin or China with a population of a billion, under any leader. So, in my view, an independent Wales should stay in NATO. But then, again, this is a decision which need not be taken now, it could be left to a referendum in the same way as any question about the role of the House of Windsor as head of state.

These three questions raise many points and also many answers. The next time Gwilym Owen or David Williams ask questions on the role of the military in an independent Wales, Plaid candidates need to have some answers and a coherent philosophical guideline. Having no military policy or worse, saying Wales would have no military would be like saying there will be no schools or hospitals in an independent Wales.

Architects of Indepedence

2007-03-29T04:28:00.000Z

There is an excellent article written by Vaughan Roderick on BBC Cymru regarding independence and the break up of the British state.

It says that a lot of credit for eventual Scottish independence must be given not to Alex Salmond or Winnie Ewing, but to Margaret Thatcher. Because it was her privatisation drive that dismantled a lot of the institutions of the British State, including the nationalised industries, energy and water companies, TV and radio etc. These organisations made up a lot of the glue that stuck the UK together, but without them, the union will be much easier to disolve.

I would like to add a few credits of my own, in particular to John Redwood and Peter Hain who have tirelessly and selflessly strived to promote the cause of Welsh Independence.

The full Vaughan Roderick article (yn Gymraeg) is here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/welsh/hi/newsid_6490000/newsid_6494600/6494609.stm

3. How Many Aircraft Carriers? - Sion Jobbins

2007-03-28T19:00:00.000Z

In an article in the current issue of the Cambria magazine, Sion Jobbins tries to answer David Williams' question put to Plaid Cymru Candidate Bethan Jenkins on BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye program "how many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have". We are grateful to Cambria and to Sion Jobbins for allowing us to reproduce this slightly extended article.

The article has been broken into 5 segments. This is the 3rd instalment. The first may be viewed here - and the 2nd may be viewed here.

HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS?
by Siôn Jobbins

PART 3 – HOW MUCH WOULD IT COST?

How much will the military of an independent Wales cost? Well, how long is a piece of string? How much would the military of the UK cost in 10 or 15 years time? It depends which party is in power and what the circumstances are. But, let's take as a guide, the military spend of other states of similar size and economic and political situation.

The Republic of Ireland with a population a little over a million more than Wales spends about £700m on its defence, that’s 0.7 of its GDP. Its active force of 10,500 is divided into the Army (8,000), Air Corp and Naval Service.

With a population of 2 million (a million less than Wales) Slovenia’s military budget is some £270m or 1.7% of its GDP. Slovenia is a NATO member and has about 7,500 officers and some 35,000 personnel – a high number partly because of its previous fragile geo-political situation and conscription which only came to end in 2004. Its military is mostly infantry but there is also a small air force and naval unit. Slovene forces have served in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Cyprus and the Golan.

So how much would an independent Welsh military cost? Again, this depends on what a democratically elected Welsh government at the time believed were its priorities. But let’s say that Welsh GDP is 4% of the UK’s? If the UK’s armed forces expenditure in 2006-07 was £34.5bn then the spend of an independent Welsh military (keeping UK levels of 2.2%) of the state’s GDP would be £720m. Now, the UK has big international commitments, partly I believe because were the UK to stop being a military force an important plank of the raise d’ertre of the UK would fall – something the ruling elite and emotionally ordinary people would not wish to see as the military is such an integral part of British identity. In fact, without a strong military, people will ask what’s the point of Britain – wouldn’t it just be Belgium on stilts? Without it’s military, what could Britain do that its constituent nations couldn’t?

What were Wales to take a middle ground between Ireland’s 0.7% of GDP and Slovenia’s 1.7%? Wales’s GDP was £35bn in 2005 (almost exactly the same amount as the UK’s Defence Budget). In keeping with its size and military legacy, then let’s say 1.5% of Welsh GDP at 2005 levels would give the military a budget of £525m which is a budget less than Ireland but more than Slovenia.

One imagines the Welsh armed forces would be about 8,000 strong, predominantly infantry but with an air and naval service more in keeping with Ireland’s than Slovenia as Slovenia has only 16 miles of coast line. Would there be an aircraft carrier? Well, let’s come to that in a minute, but the naval service would be smaller than Ireland’s for obvious reasons but would need to be able to protect our ports, Holyhead, Fishguard and the increasingly important, Milford Haven.

2. How Many Aircraft Carriers? - Sion Jobbins

2007-03-27T22:41:00.000Z

HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS?
by Siôn Jobbins

PART 2 – THREE QUESTIONS

Those questions which Plaid needs to be able to answer:
What would an independent Wales do to the existing military bases and regiments in Wales?
Would it have an armed force and how much would it cost?
Would Wales still be a member of NATO?
The answer to the first question is, that yes, a Welsh state would presumable keep the structure and infrastructure but it would come under Welsh control. This would be a bigger change in attitude than any thing else. That’s not to belittle a totally new change of command, philosophy and war aims. But it’s not rocket science either. Armies go through revision and reorganisation continuously, the British Army itself recently published Delivering Security in a Changing World in 2004 which itself was built on 1998’s Strategic Defence Review. Bringing the military in Wales under a Welsh line of command and Chief of Staff would be another revision and reorganisation in the history of the military of Wales. And heavens, if it couldn’t cope with that then what hope and confidence would the Welsh public have in the military defending Welsh interests and sovereignty?

The military structure in Wales is minimal, independence would by all accounts mean a need to strengthen its structure not diminish it. Presently there is no naval facility here and Wales is used as not much more than training ground. When the new facility is opened in St Athan there would be one of three or a combination of three options to take:

a) keep the facility as an international training facility for friendly forces
b) develop St Athan as the centre for Welsh military HQ, combining ground, air and naval command (St Athan is about five miles from Barry docks and 15 miles from Cardiff).
c) The third option, or an added option, would be to lease the facility out to another country as Iceland does at Keflavik to NATO or as the Russian navy still does with some ports in Ukraine. Wales could even decide to go under joint command with London – as the Belgians and French proposed (but failed to implement) in the 1930s.

And so on to the second question – would Wales have an armed force and how much would it cost?

Wales could of course choose to be unique and make a virtue of being a state with no monopoly of terror over its land. By doing so it would be the only state (excluding the microstates) that didn’t have a force other than the police force which would defend and promote the democratic will of its elected politicians.

This could lead to four scenarios – the state is open to internal (armed) forces which could destabilise the whole state making it a failed state like Somalia. Part of the state’s territory could be beyond its control - the UK’s lack of control over South Armagh during the Troubles, parts of Columbia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka today. A state could keep its territory intact but that a sector of the state’s workings is beyond the state’s control - corruption and mafia in many East European states or even Italy. No armed force also means the state could be destabilised or conquered by another state.

Now all the above scenarios are unlikely in the current climate (as is independence) but a politician and a political party’s job is to prepare for unlikely situations. Our low birth-rate will create a need for outside labour which may (or may not) cause internal tensions; conflicts could arise over resources like water; what are the implications of the rise in Chinese power? Who knows – as late as 1987 nobody in the intelligence service foresaw the USSR collapsing in 1991 and who would guess that English-born Muslims would bomb London buses? The difficulty with not having a military capability is that it would be very difficult and expensive to build one from scratch and in the time it would take, it could be too late for the state. In many respects the debate for an independent military capability is like that for sustaining an agricultural sector – things may be good today and it more cost-effective today to forefeit parts of the agricultural sector, but what of tomorrow?

1. How Many Aircraft Carriers? - Sion Jobbins

2007-03-26T18:13:00.000Z

In an article in the current issue of the Cambria magazine, Sion Jobbins tries to answer David Williams' question put to Plaid Cymru Candidate Bethan Jenkins on BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye program "how many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have". We are grateful to Cambria and to Sion Jobbins for allowing us to reproduce this slightly extended article. It will be posted in 5 instalments.

There has already been some discussion on this topic in an earlier post on this blog. But please feel free to comment here.

HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS?
by Siôn Jobbins

PART 1

It was the combination of two interviews, one on television in English, the other on radio in Welsh which started me thinking. David Williams, Dragon’s Eye’s firm but fair presenter, asked Plaid candidate, Bethan Jenkins, the rather idiosyncratic question; ‘how many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have?’ A few months later another BBC interviewer, Radio Cymru’s Gwilym Owen, questioned Plaid’s President, Dafydd Iwan, about the role of the military in an independent Wales. And whilst Dafydd Iwan was perfectly right to say it wasn't the most pressing of issues at the forthcoming Assembly elections, Gwilym was right to press him about a subject which it seemed Plaid Cymru had not thought out at all.

Now, I’m not a defence expert. In fact, I quietly mutter tame Welsh curses when I see that the history section in any shop has been colonised by the soft-porn of historical studies, Military History. But, as a military, sorry, philosophical exercise, I've tried, with the help of that nice Mr Wikipedia, to answer the questions Plaid candidates and leaders seem not to think important enough to ask. ‘How many aircraft carriers would an independent Wales have?’

Plaid bury their head about this issue, because of their pacifism and also a fear that their political opponents would ridicule it – the, ‘Plaid would spend £20billion on a Welsh army (ha, ha, ha) not on hospitals’ line. Plaid’s pacifism is partly then the need to pacify opponents and historically distance itself from the nationalism of Sinn Fein/IRA. It’s also nationalism by proxy. Take the Falklands Conflict as one example. Plaid could have been straight and said the UK had a right to retake the Falkland by armed force as a part of her territory – after all, it had been invaded by a military junta who were chucking left-wing activists, out of aeroplanes. The UK had the right to attack but that as Welsh nationalists Plaid could say they believed that this was a war which Welsh men had no reason to be part of. Instead, Plaid took the ‘they should talk and talk … and then go for a cup of tea’, line. Plaid use the tired stock line that ‘war doesn't achieve anything’, when in fact war does achieve things – which is why people do it.

Plaid, could of course, were it more confident of itself, accuse its opponents of hypocrisy, celebrating Welsh bravery when Welsh men fight under the Union Jack but ridiculing Welsh bravery were they to fight under the Red Dragon. Or it could say that having an independent Welsh military would give the Welsh electorate the choice of which wars Wales wishes to fight and which it doesn't – Suez, Falklands, Iraq to name just a few.

Of course, Plaid could just continue to take its present ersatz pacifist stand. The stand which made Bethan Jenkins’s answer go AWOL when interviewed on Dragon’s Eye. She couldn't answer the question not because she isn't intelligent but more pertinently because she lacked the experience in discussing the matter. It’s not Bethan's problem entirely either because Plaid and its left-wingers have spent the last five years discussing the military in Iraq but not 5 minutes discussing what the military capabilities of an independent Wales would be.

Plaid can’t pontificate about international issues without coming clean to the public about what Wales’s role in world affairs would be and how Wales would defend its borders.

There are three simple questions and three comparatively simple answers.
1. What would an independent Wales do to the existing military bases and regiments in Wales?
2. Would it have an armed force and how much would it cost?
3. Would Wales still be a member of NATO?

I will try and answers these three questions in the next instalment.

Time for a Change

2007-03-25T23:58:00.000Z

With the Assembly election campaign starting to build up its nice to see Plaid mentioning Independence, but it would be better to see them discuss it head on...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqyupOTfpsw

But I prefer these two unofficial broadcasts – particularly the soundtracks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vMPhD7oxmU

The Plaid Cymru official Party Conference Broadcast for 2007 is available here... ac yma.

The Independence Debate

2007-03-25T09:48:00.000Z

The independence debate is alive and kicking in Scotland - see this latest series of articles in the Scottish Herald:

A lot of the points made are directly applicable to Wales.

If only we had a Welsh media to air these views...

Welsh Armed Forces

2007-03-22T03:06:00.000Z

There have been a couple of interesting posts on this site about the role of the armed forces in an independent Wales.

The armed forces question is always a potent argument against independence, and one that needs to be addressed. It is a question that needs more than a blog post to address in full, so the following is just a thought or two on a subject that needs much more attention

The fact that Welsh people have contributed, selflessly and bravely, to armed conflict when it has arisen (for better or worse) is without doubt. Any suggestion that Wales is incapable of raising an effective armed force flies in the face of history. In every war in the past 400 years the number of Welsh combatants and casualties has been more than our "fair share" per capita of population.

When the British nationalists rubbish the idea of a Welsh Army by saying it won't be good enough they rubbish every single name that appears on a cenotaph in every Welsh village, town and city. They rubbish the contribution made by the Welsh Army in every conflict before, during and since the two world wars.

The main "army" question against independence is that an independent Welsh army would be incapable of defending Wales, independently, from invasion. This is probably true. But who is likely to invade Wales? Invasions usually come from neighbouring countries. Are England or Ireland going to invade an independent Wales?

Since the formation of the United Kingdom the UK has never, ever, fought threats to these islands independently, it has always been dependant on alliances for home defence. Presumably if an independent Wales faced the threat of invasion we could depend on friends and allies too.

The only times that UK armed forces have acted unilaterally is in defence of far-flung empirical territories. Wales doesn't have an empire, doesn't want one and will never have the need to have that unilateral ability.

The current Welsh Armed Forces, under British control, have shown how much they are capable of contributing to international efforts, as part of an European force, an UN force and (dare I say it on this site?) even a NATO force. That contribution wouldn't be less if the Welsh Army were answerable to an Independent Welsh Government, it would probably be more.

Even if it was about the same or a little bit less the Welsh contribution would have a lot more appreciation and respect than it has at present.

Jill Evans in the Western Mail

2007-03-21T18:50:00.000Z

The following article was published in the Western Mail yesterday. The article is rather 'confused' and Plaid Cymru MEP Jill Evans says "In Wales, of course, we are not debating independence at the moment." Well we certainly are on this blog, and it's nice to see the Western Mail giving the issue some attention.

'Our defence policy should make us secure, not a threat to others'
Mar 20 2007
Staff Reporter, Western Mail

On the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, Catherine Jones examines the case for Wales to make its own choices on future world conflicts

EXACTLY four years on from British forces joining their US allies in Iraq, Scotland has put the prospect of forming its own defence policy at the top of the political agenda.

As Wales, like the rest of UK, counts the human and financial cost of the conflict, the Scottish National Party is wooing voters with the promise an independent Scotland would mean their troops being "never again dragged into an illegal war".

While Wales is still a long way from the prospect of its own parliament, the SNP is streets ahead in tapping into the anger felt by many over the Iraq campaign.

Detailed plans include Scotland deciding its own (non-nuclear) defence policy in its National Parliament while being defended by a well-paid, equipped and trained army, and retaining its "historic regiments".

So what might the future hold for a Wales still settling into what some see as the modest powers of the Assembly Government? Might the country one day form its own defence policy and hold its own on the international scene?

As debate rages over the proposal to install a costly new Trident nuclear weapons system on the Clyde - plans opposed by Plaid Cymru MEP Jill Evans who is chairwoman of Wales CND - the SNP has also vowed no nuclear weapons would be based on independent Scottish soil.

Should Wales aim for such an unequivocal say on defence issues? Certainly potent images of death and destruction have, says Ms Evans, prompted many Welsh people to question the involvement of their nation in the conflict.

"There was tremendous opposition in Wales to the invasion of Iraq and that still holds. People are still very angry about the British government backing up the US and that the death and destruction is still going on.

"When people said 'not in my name', I believe that many people here felt that on behalf of Wales.

"Looking towards the future, independence is a very long way off and there are various theories about how Wales' defence would be best served. We would have to look at whether the threats we would face would be those we face now.

"Ultimately it will be up to the people of Wales to decide. It's difficult to talk about future policy when we are only a few steps into having any power.

"But the mainstay would be a defence policy which is what it says - to provide security to the people of Wales, and not a policy that threatens others, as we have seen with the whole experience of Iraq. That is, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis being killed on the basis of the war being a lie."

While many people - perhaps set against increased powers or independence for Wales - may scoff at the notion of a future where Wales forms its own foreign policy, it's a development our Celtic cousin clearly sees as more than a possibility.

SNP plans include the establishment of a peace-keeping Scottish Centre for Reconciliation and Conflict Resolution. The country would "initially" equip its Armed Forces - the Scottish Defence Force to consist of professionals supported by "part-time volunteers" - with "Scotland's share of UK defence resources".

The country would also maintain active defence commitments with its friends and allies through the United Nations, European Union and Partnership for Peace.

"The independence debate is very current in Scotland," says Ms Evans. "In Wales, of course, we are not debating independence at the moment - it's something that Plaid Cymru aspires to as a long-term aim.

"But it isn't the debate taking place in Wales now, around the election, or indeed the defence system, but it is something about which people feel strongly. So many people said no and the government wouldn't listen.

"There are several other models that Plaid looked at and its defence policy would be that we would co-operate with other countries, primarily through the United Nations. We are against membership of Nato because of the nuclear alliance."

Political commentators may advise against putting the milk money on Scotland becoming independent, taking the view such a state of affairs is a long way off - if at all.

But as the Assembly gets more powers, as the process of devolution continues apace, many opposed to the war may feel increasingly enthusiastic about a nation of three million voices that could say "no" to a future unwanted military campaign.

The decision to join US President George Bush's assault on Saddam Hussein split Labour, leading to four ministerial resignations and the largest back bench rebellion of Tony Blair's time in office, as 139 of the party's MPs opposed the Government in the key vote four years ago.

Anger over Iraq was one of the main reasons for the reduction of Labour's majority from 163 to 66 in the 2005 General Election and it caused rifts in the international community, putting Mr Blair and Mr Bush against Nato allies like France and Germany.

Wales' First Minister Rhodri Morgan has remained resolutely ambivalent about his take on the nation's role in the conflict and some seem to take the view that the war will cease to be an issue once Tony Blair is out of power.

But playing prophet, what if Wales - albeit far down the line - became a truly independent state like Ireland? Would it have its own army? How would it be funded?

Should those who believe it is not economically viable for Wales to go it alone look to the likes of Ireland, separate from the UK since the 1920s, and able to take its own position on international defence issues?

Will the issue move beyond a topic of debate for the chattering classes of Cardiff's media and political enclaves?

Will an increasing majority in Wales be moved to support independence in the belief it has been dragged, against its will, into a war waged by an English-centric government that never shed its Empire-happy provenance?

Creating our Own Agenda

2007-03-20T03:38:00.000Z

In an earlier post on this site Johnny Roberts makes the important point that Independence needs to be put on the political agenda . He is, of course, totally correct.

One of the things that have amazed me in recent years is how the percentage of people who support independence has risen without the issue being on the agenda. Before the 1997 devolution referendum a BBC poll found that 11% of the people of Wales supported independence. The Richard Report found that in 2003 14% supported independence and another BBC poll commissioned in January of this year found that the figure had risen to 20%. One cannot but wonder what the figures might be like if independence had been a central issue on the Welsh political agenda during the past 10 years.

Johnny, in his article, suggests that Plaid should put independence firmly on the agenda - I agree with him entirely, but somehow I doubt that this will happen in the short term. Saying so isn't intended as a criticism of Plaid it is just a reflection of current political reality. With so much to say about "bread and butter issues" during the forthcoming assembly elections such as health, education and public order it would be political suicide for any party to try to veer away from that agenda and create a "new" agenda.

In our days political parties are rarely responsible for forcing any issue onto the political agenda. Focus groups decide the agenda and pressure groups influence the focus groups. The fact that all four parties are trying to out green each other in the present election campaign has nothing to do with capitalist, socialist, liberal or nationalist philosophies, it is due entirely to the fact that green campaigners have focused the minds of the electorate onto green issues.

The only way for independence to be put on the political agenda in Wales is for those of us who support independence to form a non-party campaign group to raise awareness of the benefits of independence.

It won't be an easy task. Many similar attempts have been hijacked by what I can only describe as the "nutty" side of nationalism. Staunch Plaid members may see forming such a group as an attack on Plaid. Supporters of independence in other parties (and there are many) may see it as an attempt to promote Plaid. Many nationalists expend all their campaigning energies in other groups CyIG, CND, Greenpeace etc.

Such people may see a Campaign for Independence as one campaign too far. However I sincerely believe that a Campaign for Independence is the only realistic way of putting independence on the agenda, and I would appreciate views from readers of this blog about how we can make such a campaign a reality.

Montenegro - seat in EU | Wales - useless Assembly

2007-03-19T08:16:00.000Z

So, Montengro is beginning discussions about joining the EU as a full nation state. What do the Labour, Tory and LibDem voters think makes Wales so exceptionally useless that it can't run its own affairs?

The only answer I can think for Labour and the Tories is that they want to keep the Nuclear phallic symbol and pretend they're part of a big country.

In the words of Mrs Davies from Burry Port, 'Wales would be a third world country like Albania, still using horse and cart if it weren't for England.'

That sums it up really. Much better we don't run our own affairs, after all, our population is only 5 times greater and our GNP only 10 times greater than that of Montenegro!

As Long As We Beat The English..............

2007-03-18T04:55:00.000Z

A lot of people complained about the Stereophonics song, saying that it was whipping up ‘racial’ hatred.

I agree that Welsh nationalism and the campaign for independence should be built up by stressing the positive aspects of Wales and should not be dragged down into negative anti-English attacks.

But in which case, can someone please tell me why I feel so damn good this morning????

Just in case you don’t know the song, here are the lyrics:

We don't wanna be your enemy,
But when we're on the field,
It's red, white and green,
Get beat by the Irish,
Get beat by the Scots,
The French ought'ta struggle,
But you're the one we want,
We want...

As long as we beat the English,
As long as we beat the English,
As long as we beat the English,
we don't care

As long as we beat the English,
As long as we beat the English,
As long as we beat the English,
we don't care

We don't care

’How Many Aircraft Carriers would an Independent Wales have?'

2007-03-14T13:27:00.000Z

In an article in the latest issue of Cambria magazine Siôn Jobbins tries to answer the question put to the Plaid Cymru candidate, Bethan Jenkins, by (BBC Wales) Dragon's Eye presenter, David Williams. Jobbins outlines the possible expenditure and set-up of a Welsh military.... and answers David Williams's question. Well worth a read.

The article isn't online, but why not grab a copy of Cambria - on sale
in most good bookshops, as they say.

Opportunities in Independence

2007-03-13T12:34:00.000Z

In an Independent Wales, we would receive a substantial 'peace dividend' as we would no longer need to support the UK's imperial ambitions and military adventures.

However because of our poor economic performance our funds would still be limited and we would not be able to afford heavy public spending commitments, particularly large scale state investment or supporting bloated government or municipal bureaucracies. We would have to live within our means.

But one major advantage that we would have following independence is the ability to create a different economic climate than the UK (or England). We could follow Ireland’s example and cut Corporation tax to encourage inward investment. It has also been suggested that instead of providing development grants (which usually seem to be wasted away) that we could give tax breaks for new investments instead.

Inward investors could be given a tax exemption for say 2 years for creating service jobs, or say 5 years for manufacturing jobs. Personally I would give the highest tax exemption to developing sustainable value-added initiatives, for example developing furniture workshops based on the Welsh forestry, or dairy products using local milk. What we lose in Corporation tax should be more than compensated for in increased personal tax revenue.

Independence would also give us the opportunity to deregulate sectors to attract tourist money – why shouldn’t Rhyl have a supercasino - why shouldn’t Cardiff develop an ‘exotic’ nightlife zone. Maybe controversial, but we need to learn to think outside of the box.

To survive and flourish we have to encourage outside investment and create a climate where local businesses could flourish, while at the same time ensuring that individuals rights are adequately protected.

We should not be afraid of independence – we should seize the opportunity with both hands.

Time for Plaid to set the agenda

2007-03-09T23:09:00.000Z

Many Plaid representatives have contributed to this blog, expressing their support for independence. It is time now for them to act on their words.

Independence needs to be put on the political agenda. We must have an informative public debate. Welsh people have never been told excactly how Britain has failed them, and they have never been told what independence means, and how it would benefit them.

This can only be done if independence is thrown onto the political agenda. Let those in favour put forward the case and let those against argue against. Oponents will have no option but to defend Britain's record, leaving their sham arguments exposed. They will then have to fall back on the British nationalist card - play up the Union Jack and Britishness - and people can see that these things have no real relevance to their daily lives or their identity.

Come on Plaid, Welsh identity is strong in the Labour-held valleys. It just doesn't translate into political terms, and that is because independence isn't on the agenda and they have no choice but to follow the devil they know.

Argue the economics and play the patriotic card. There is nothing to lose and all to gain. Let Labour defend Britishness (expose it as the Englishness that it is) and let Labour defend corporate capitalism and Western Imperialism. Expose these London-serving (and self-serving) hypocrites for what they are. They are there for the taking, as long as Plaid are ready to trade punches rather than duck and weave.

Charles - What is he good for?

2007-03-06T05:46:00.000Z

So Prince Charles thinks that he is the legal owner of the Three Feathers symbol and has the right to send bullying letters to small businessmen. This symbol is not his personal property but represents the stolen title of the Prince of Wales, and despite its German roots, has become as widely used as a symbol of Wales as the Dragon, the Leek and the Daffodil.

However, Charles’s attitude shows his complete disregard for Wales.

Is it not time that the people of Wales stood up to this arrogant inbred and told him that we do not want or need him, and that he has no right to claim to be our Prince. We should demand that he be divested of the title, which should be returned to the people of Wales.

Perhaps in an Independent Wales this title could be granted on a temporary and honorary basis to a democratically elected Welsh President????

In the meantime, a song based on the Edwin Starr classic (and by Bruce Springsteen and others) ……………

Charles – Huuur
What is he good for ?
Absolutely Nothing!
Say it again…………

Rhodri in favour of independence?

2007-03-03T16:39:00.000Z

In a speech at the United Nations headquarters in New York last night, Rhodri Morgan (Unionist & Labour First Minister for Wales) said that he wanted Wales to get more recognition around the world, and complained that Wales didn't have enough influence within the European Union:

In population terms Wales is bigger than five Member States and not very much smaller than another three. Why should this matter? Because Malta, with a population hardly bigger than Cardiff, has a direct seat at the table and access to the entire EU decision making machinery. It also has a much higher number of MEPs in proportion to its population.

Isn't that an argument for Welsh Independence Rhodri?

Interesting Links - making the case for independence

2007-02-28T17:21:00.000Z

Here are some interesting links making the case for Scottish independence, posted by Rhys on Welsh Language Discussion Forum maes-e:

A Case for Independence Part 1 (Economy)
A Case for Independence Part 2 (Location of Power)
A Case for Independence Part 3 (Identity + relationship with England)

Another Welsh Not...

2007-02-27T11:03:00.000Z

The UK Government recently received an e-petition to make St Davids Day a public holiday in Wales. It was one of the most popular petitions received, with over 11,000 signatures, but despite this display of popular support, and the previous overwhelming support from the Senedd, London has decided that we can not be trusted to run our own internal affairs.

Read the response for Downing Street:

The Government receives a variety of suggestions for new or different Bank Holidays and celebrations. Whilst the Government is pleased that so many people are interested, as you can imagine it is not possible to please everyone as to who or what should be celebrated. Unlike Northern Ireland, where St Patrick's Day is a bank holiday, bank and public holidays in Great Britain do not, by tradition commemorate particular individuals, events, or institutions, other than those associated with Christmas and Easter. Moreover, many individuals and communities in Wales already celebrate St David's Day in a way they consider more suitable. The present pattern of bank holidays in the United Kingdom is well established and accepted, and the Government has no current plans to change the arrangements. I hope that this is helpful.

Well actually it is quite helpful - every time that London resists popular change, they hasten the day when we finally achieve independence.

Alex Salmond & Hardeep Singh Kohli

2007-02-26T22:28:00.000Z

SNP Leader Alex Salmond and comedian and writer Hardeep Singh Kohli, made very strong cases for Scottish independence on last Thursday's Question Time. Here is an edited version of the program:

Make no mistake, I am Scots NOT British!

2007-02-25T17:18:00.000Z

A superb video promoting Scottish Independence produced for the Scottish Independence Guide website.

Debt Reduction through Independence

2007-02-25T10:48:00.000Z

In 2006, the National Debt of the UK was £461.5 Billion, equivalent to £7,692 per head of population, or more realistically £16,193 per working population. As Wales is effectively a 5% shareholder in the UK, we would become liable for our fair share of this debt following independence, but what constitutes ‘fair’ ?

There is a piece of international law called the Vienna Convention on Succession of States in respect of State Property, Archives and Debts 1983

This is effectively a piece of international divorce law which lays down guidelines for who gets what in the event of a countries breakup, and would be directly applicable to Wales.

The first part of this Convention says that an independent Wales would receive any immovable UK assets on Welsh soil, together with related movable assets, for example the DVLA building in Swansea, together with its computers, desks, cars etc.

Wales would also be entitled to receive a proportion of the movable assets of the UK, in proportion to Wales’s contributions. If Wales has paid say 4% of the UK’s tax revenues, then we would be entitled to receive 4% of UK Gold Reserves, 4% of the British Army’s tanks etc.

The Convention states explicitly that these assets are transferred without compensation – we have already paid for them.

Now for practical and political reasons, the UK is not going to give Wales 4% of the Trident submarine fleet (currently valued at £76 Billion) even though we would be entitled to our share, so it would need to come up with some form of alternative compensation.

The Convention then goes on to say that

The state debt of the predecessor state (UK) shall pass to the successor state (Wales) in an equitable proportion, taking into account in particular the property, rights & interests which pass to the successor state in relation to that state debt.

In practice this means that if the UK was only to transfer say 3% of state assets to Wales, then we could expect to only take over a corresponding amount of debt. This would result in an overall reduction in the National Debt per head of population for Wales, with a small increase for England. This is only a statistic, but the real benefit would be in the reduced interest payments on this debt, which will have to be funded from the Welsh budget.

There would obviously be a huge amount of negotiations and horse trading to arrive at the final settlement, and anybody who has been through a divorce will now how protracted and acrimonious this can get – but one thing is clear – Wales would be financially better off following independence