The Price of Independence - 2

An Introduction:

Before starting to look at the figures in detail, a few words of explanation – all the figures I have used are based on the UK government’s 2006 ‘Blue Book’, and refer to 2003/04 data in £billion. I have then initially estimated the Welsh element on a purely proportional basis, based on the nominal populations of Wales & the UK of 3million/60 million = 5%.

Category .................UK Budget..... Proportionate Welsh Budget
Social Security...................129.5........................... 6.4
NHS.......................................72.1........................... 3.8
Education............................. 59.5...........................2.9
Defence.................................28.............................. 1.5
Public Order........................27.7............................ 1.4
Transport............................15.9.............................0.75
Environment........................7.7...............................0.4
Housing.................................7.5...............................0.4
Enterprise............................7.2...............................0.4
Culture.................................6.3................................0.3
Agriculture.........................5.2.................................0.3
Science & Technology.......2.2.................................0.1
Other................................. 80.2...............................3.9
TOTAL..................... 449.......................... 22.55

I have then looked at each of these individual categories and created a projected Welsh budget by adjusting these initial figures, based on the best information I can find, and/or by making a series of assumptions (which are all documented).

But a word of warning – I am not an economist or a public finance accountant – these figures may not stand up to detailed scrutiny and need to be developed further by an expert, but I am confident that these figures are realistic and are far more accurate than anything which leaves the lips of Peter Hain.

(A lot more to follow - you will need to keep up at the back....)